The break-down of governorships up for grabs

Survey USA just released its batch of polling data this month for the governors in all 50 states.  Here is a list of the poll numbers of all the incumbents planning to run again this year.  The red indicates that the Republican incumbent will win easily, and the blue indicates that the Democrat will win easily.  Those left black will be battleground contests with the possibility of the challenger winning:

• Bob Riley (R) of Alabama: Approve - 59%, Disapprove - 37%
• Frank Murkowski (R) of Alaska: Approve - 23%, Disapprove - 73%
• Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) of California: Approve - 36%, Disapprove - 61%
• Janet Napolitano (D) of Arizona: Approve - 58%, Disapprove - 39%
• Robert Ehrlich (R) of Maryland: Approve - 44%, Disapprove - 50%
• Sonny Perdue (R) of Georgia: Approve - 60%, Disapprove - 35%
• Linda Lingle (R) of Hawaii: Approve - 66%, Disapprove - 27%
• Rod Blagojevich (D) of Illinois: Approve - 45%, Disapprove - 51%
• Kathleen Sebelius (D) of Kansas: Approve - 61%, Disapprove - 31%
• John Baldacci (D) of Maine: Approve - 43%, Disapprove - 54%
• Jennifer Granholm (D) of Michigan: Approve - 43%, Disapprove - 54%
• Tim Pawlenty (R) of Minnesota: Approve - 51%, Disapprove - 43%
• Dave Heineman (R) of Nebraska: Approve - 70%, Disapprove - 26%
• John Lynch (D) of New Hampshire: Approve - 71%, Disapprove -21%
• Bill Richardson (D) of New Mexico: Approve - 56%, Disapprove - 37%
• Brad Henry (R) of Oklahoma: Approve - 66%, Disapprove - 30%
• Ted Kulongoski (D) of Oregon: Approve - 35%, Disapprove - 58%
• Ed Rendell (D) of Pennsylvania: Approve - 62%, Disapprove - 36%
• Donald Carcieri (R) of Rhode Island: Approve - 54%, Disapprove - 42%
• Mark Sanford (R) of South Carolina: Approve - 53%, Disapprove - 42%
• Michael Rounds (R) of South Dakota: Approve - 65%, Disapprove - 30%
• Philip Bredesen (D) of Tennessee: Approve - 51%, Disapprove - 44%
• Rick Perry (R) of Texas: Approve - 40%, Disapprove - 54%
• James Douglas (R) of Vermont: Approve - 61%, Disapprove - 31%
• James Doyle (D) of Wisconsin: Approve - 47%, Disapprove - 48%
• Dave Freudenthal (D) of Wyoming: Approve - 68%, Disapprove - 24%

As this list concludes, of the incumbent governors running for another term, 5 Republicans and 5 Democrats are in trouble.

What this chart does not factor in are open governor seats (where the incumbent is either retiring or there are term limits, meaning two fresh candidates will run).  There is only 1 open Democratic governor seat and 8 open Republican governor seats, obviously giving the Democrats a huge advantage. 

As it stands, the Republicans hold 28 governorships nationwide, while the Democrats hold 22.  All that needs to happen for the Democrats to a gain majority of the governorships is for them to pick up a net gain of 4 seats this November, giving them a 26-24 advantage.  Most pollsters agree that this is very much a possibility, especially considering the way political trends are shaping up nationwide.