GOP is teasing their base

There is a surprise on the immigration front.  After word came down two weeks ago that Congress had pretty much shelved any opportunity before November of solving the immigration stalemate between the House and Senate, the two sides are now talking again, says the Washington Post:

"I've really been rather encouraged about what's happened over the lastseveral days with regard to the issue of immigration," said HouseMajority Leader John A. Boehner  (R-Ohio).

The plan being negotiated on would call for the "construction of triple-layer walls, deployment of surveillance aircraft and other means of tightening the border with Mexico."  Two years later, the situation would then be evaluated and, if all went well, a quest worker program would be enacted.

But most Washington insiders will tell you that this is a big gamble.  If the GOP start talking about this issue again and gets nothing done, they will find themselves in an even worse position with their base voters than just month ago.  Every time Republicans talk about immigration, passionate feelings take hold within the conservative base, and those voters become even less tolerant of inaction.

I will give the GOP Congress credit for one thing: they are taking chances, something that Democratic strategists usually are too chicken to even consider.  If this thing does not work out, even after talking about it to death once again, the GOP will have voter turnout problems this November.  By not getting anything done, it would be like teasing their base.  Really, who likes to be teased?  Think of it as a baseball analogy.  Losing a game 8 to 3 is one thing.  But losing it 8 to 7 after the bullpen blew the lead can be worse.  Sometimes good intentions coupled with good effort can lead to high expectations.  If those expectations are not met, then everyone gets angry.  That is the gamble that the GOP faces by revisiting this issue.  Either they get their base revved up before November, or they anger them and millions of them stay home.

If an immigration compromise is made, expect the GOP to have a better shot at narrowly maintaining control of Congress.  But if no immigration deal is reached, then say "good-bye" to the Republican majority this November.
----------------------------------------------------------
Other blogs writing about this issue: Blog Reload, The Ford Report, Hot line Blog, The Influence Peddler, Beltway Blitz, The Hedgehog Blog, Blog for Arizona, Class Struggle.