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2006.07.09

Edwards and Bayh understand the importance of Iowa

For the Democrats, it's all about Iowa.  As we learned in 2004, winning Iowa is essential in order to get a bounce heading into the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.  With today's hyper news cycle, whoever wins Iowa gets instant rock-star status in the media.

Both John Edwards and Evan Bayh, two potential presidential candidates, are among the favorites in Iowa.  Yesterday I wrote about how Edwards and Bayh have similar charming personalities, which is why the two face the possibility that they might cancel each other out a little (another way of saying that voters might confuse the two).

But still, they deserve credit.  The two are both ahead of their game in Iowa, as the Washington Post points out this morning:

This weekend, Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) was to honor a state representative at a coffee shop inMuscatine, while former senator John Edwards (N.C.), the 2004 vicepresidential nominee, planned to attend a barbecue for party faithfulin Indianola, among other events.

Edwards and Bayh have made thebiggest splashes in Iowa since the 2004 election. But they are beingjoined in Iowa this month by the 2004 presidential nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry  (Mass.), and former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner.

Alsoactive in Iowa is Tom Vilsack, who will retire from the governorship atthe end of his term as he ponders a 2008 bid. He and Bayh are the onlytwo potential candidates to have political staff workers already on theground, according to the Register.

A poll last month by theRegister showed Edwards leading other potential Democratic contenders,with 30 percent of the vote of people likely to participate in thecaucuses.  Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton  (N.Y.), who has not made a priority of visiting Iowa, came in second, followed by Kerry and Vilsack.

John Edwards is almost definitely running for president.  By every indication, he seems to be waiting for the right time to do so, which could be within the next twelve months.  My guess is that Edwards wants to make his intentions known early.  Although he ended strong in Iowa in 2004, he started out very slow and did not have enough money to compete with Dean and Kerry until later.  So I would not be surprised if he was one of the first to announce his candidacy, part of a proactive effort to get a running start ahead of Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner and John Kerry.

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