Evan Bayh is getting in the way of John Edwards

The Associated Press published a story this morning that will probably annoy the living daylights out of John Edwards. 

Last month the latest 2008 Iowa Caucus poll showed John Edwards leading all candidates, even Hillary Clinton, in the state of Iowa.  Analysts said that he was out in front because he has successfully defined himself as a charming, down to earth, rural American guy that can relate with the American worker.  Until now, no Democratic candidate has fit that precise role.

Now John Edwards is going to have some competition.  Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, who also might run for president in 2008, is trying to come across to voters as the exact same kind of person.  He is currently in Iowa for some campaigning:

"The chatter that you hear is that he's a good guy and nice and hehas that honest, Midwestern feel to him, kind of like Harry Truman,"said veteran Democratic strategist Dane Strother. "That's allappealing."

In his fifth trip to Iowa in the last year, the centrist IndianaDemocrat opened a three-day swing Thursday with a fundraiser indowntown Des Moines for legislative candidates. He mingled easily withabout 50 party activists for more than an hour and made a point ofchatting with everyone in the room.

"He's a Midwesterner and that will help him in Iowa," said stateSenate Democratic leader Michael Gronstal. "It's up to him to sellhimself, and so far he's been fairly impressive."

John Edwards and Evan Bayh are running almost exactly the same style of campaign, even though their views are somewhat different.  This is huge.  There are about nine or ten possible Democrats that will run for president.  The candidate that will emerge victorious in Iowa, the first contest in the primary season, will only finish with around 20% of the vote.  The personality that stands out the most will end up getting that 20%.  If John Edwards and Evan Bayh mirror one another in personality, that is a problem for both candidates, yet very good for Hillary Clinton.

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Other blogs writing about Evan Bayh: Political Roads, Diary of a Political Madman, Political Forecast, Hotline, Unearth Indiana, Common Sense, Things Going Round & Round.

Comments

[Rob]

The difference between Edwards and Bayh is experience. Edwards still has the same experience problems that he had in 2004, he was a one-term Senator.

Bayh on the other hand... Bayh's been elected 5 times to state-wide office in a VERY red state. He was elected twice as Governor and twice as Senator.

While Governor, Sen Bayh created more jobs in Indiana than any other governor, ran surpluses in the state budget and created the 21st Century Scholar program (recently mirrored in Iowa) which moved Indiana from near the bottom in percentage of students going to college to near the top.

As Senator, Bayh sits on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees and is working to get our country more energy independent, protecting the rights of service members and protecting business against unfair foreign business practices.

What is Edwards' experience?

[Herman]

There is something Edwards has in his style that Evan Bayh never will (at least he has failed to show any sign of it yet): charisma. Bayh can be charming one on one, but in large groups, he is stale, stiff, and boring. And as the primaries roll around, the candidates will have to address and hold the attention of larger groups of people. Bayh doesn't have the ability to engage the crowd the way Edwards did.

Warner is more engaging than Bayh, and while Edwards was seen as outgoing and extroverted in 04, Bayh comes across as a little reserved. That is the stylistic difference. As the folks at WaPo noted, Edwards is the most naturally talented politician in the field, republican or democrat. That is a huge advantage for him and I highly doubt Bayh is scaring him, as you suggest.

The substantive difference is even larger. Bayh's views and votes are very conservative for a Democratic Primary. Wait till his 08 competitors run adds about his support for the flag burning amendment. Bayh might have experience as the other commentator observes, but while gaining that experience, did he support progressive causes? Even Bill Clinton, a moderate, ran as a very liberal candidate in the primaries and then shifted back to the center for the general.

For now, Bayh has shown that he has a good resume and good organization - a network that he is rapidly building. But he has yet to show that he has the substance or the syle to emerge victories in a field that has not one but two people who have the rock star quality: Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. And even Warner, though not widely known, can show a good presence every now and then.

I don't see this as huge. I see that someone like Warner might have the potential to spark some charismatic genes in himself, but Bayh seems uncapable of it. Plus, having heard his speech on the stump, he has nothing interesting to say to appeal to the base crowds. It would be very easy to caricature Bayh as the wooden lifelong politico. Now to give credit where it's due: Bayh is actually a very genuinely nice guy and a good friend of Edwards as they were jogging buddies and seat mates in the senate. But they are almost polar opposites as far as style goes.