541 Likely voters Taken between October 26 and October 29 Sampling error: /- 4
This one is from :
Tennessee Senate Race
(R) Bob Corker - 49% (D) Harold Ford - 47%
The second poll was taken among likely voters, and it is within the margin of error. All we can hope for is that the CNN poll was just an outlier. Although, you have to admit that it seems like Bob Corker has regained the momentum he lost a few days ago. It will just come down to who ever has the momentum in the end.
If you live in Tennessee and you want to see Harold Ford win this November, then please in any way that you can.
Yesterday, Pentagon sources to CBS News that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told his inner circle that the security in situation in Iraq is "nearly out of control." But in a contradictory move today, Maliki that the security checkpoints between around Sadr City, a long-time hot-bed for insurgents, be lifted. U.S. forces have been ordered to leave their positions around the city as well:
A crowd gathered outside the local headquarters of Sadr'sorganization, some firing in the air in celebration at the end of whata senior follower called a "barbaric and savage siege" that marred lastweek's Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr.
As far as go, today has been yet another mess. This is very sobering:
FALLUJA - A roadside bomb killed one policeman and one civilian in thewestern city of Falluja, 50 km (30 miles) west of Baghdad, police said.Two civilians were also wounded.
BAGHDAD - A car bomb ripped througha wedding procession in the northeastern district of Ur in Baghdad,killing 15 people, including four children, Interior Ministry andpolice said.
SUWAYRA - The bodies of three people were recovered from the Tigris river in Suwayra, police said.
TAL AFAR - Four "terrorists"and one Iraqi army lieutenant were killed during a raid on a buildingused by militants in the northern town of Tal Afar, about 420 km (260miles) north of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.
TARMIYA - More than 40 people were missing aftergunmen ambushed minibuses travelling to Baghdad near Tarmiya, 30 km (20miles), north of the capital, a spokesman for the Joint CoordinationCenter for Iraqi and U.S. forces in the northern city of Tikrit said.
NEAR SUWAYRA - The bodies of five gunmen were found in an orchard whichwas the scene of clashes between gunmen and the police several days agonear the town of Suwayra, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, policesaid.
BAQUBA - The bodies of eight people were found, bound and gagged, inBaquba, police said. All the victims were shot in the head.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed a policemanand wounded three others near the southern Doura district of Baghdad,an Interior Ministry source said.
BAQUBA - Clashes betweengunmen and police left a policeman dead and three others wounded inBaquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.
BAQUBA -Gunmen suspected of belonging to a militia run by Shi'ite clericMoqtada al-Sadr, shot and wounded the owners of two shops in Baquba,police said.
FALLUJA - An Iraqi army soldier died in clashes with gunmen in the Sunni city of Falluja, police said.
TAL AFAR - Four gunmen and an Iraqi army soldier were killed in clashes in the northern town of Tal Afar, police said.
BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed three civilians and wounded 10 others in northeastern Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.
So, how do you like our policy? This is not what we were told was going to happen, and Americans are tired of it.
This latest will hopefully motivate all the volunteers inside the Claire McCaskill Campaign to work overtime and make sure they can maximize turnout in every precinct. Among "registered voters" McCaskill has a significant lead. However, among "likely voters" the race is tied:
Missouri Senate Race
Among Registered Voters (R) Jim Talent - 43% (D) Claire McCaskill - 51%
With such a large difference between registered voters and likely voters, Missouri would make an ideal place for GOP election fraud. Think about it. McCaskill has the support of so many non-likely voters. Demographically speaking, these voters usually tend to be single woman, minorities and the disabled. Back in August, the ran a story about how 200,000 Missouri voters lack the new government-issued photo ID, which costs money (even though the U.S. constitution forbids a . Really, follow the to read the amendment!). Surely, the number of Missouri voters without the ID has decreased since August. However, even if there are 50,000 or 20,000 of them on election day, that is a lot of ineligible voters and could make the difference. It is highly probable that a situation could unfold where tens of thousands of usually a-political voters show up to vote and don't have that specific government-issued ID.
For those reasons, expect this race to be within a point and a half on election night -- even though McCaskill should win easily.
A new confirms a that was leaked yesterday and published today that shows Democratic challenger Jim Webb leading Republican Senator George Allen. Here is the :
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 46% (D) James Webb - 50%
(597 Likely Voters, sampling error of /-4)
As you can see, this race is still slightly within the margin of error -- but barely. This is among likely voters. But among all registered voters, Webb has a 48% to 46% lead.
George Allen has less than one week to dig up all the dirt he can on James Webb. But typically when you find something on a candidate and voters instead sympathize with the other guy, as was the case when Allen dug through last week, then you probably don't want to try that tactic again. My guess is that Allen is done shuffling through Webb's past. All that stands between Webb and a U.S. Senate seat is a high conservative base turnout and a surprisingly depressed turnout in Northern Virginia. However, the latter is unlikely.
If I were Allen, I would get John McCain in there to campaign with me. However, that would be ironic considering that McCain wrote a great review of Webb's book, which Allen said was sexually explicit -- therefore a contradiction. If I were Webb, I would counter with Mark Warner and Governor Tom Kaine.
Paul Miller, President of the , a popular media watchdog blog that the recent focus on Jack Abramoff is "not necessarily hurting us (lobbyists) doing business."
But if I were them, I would be doing whatever I could to prevent Nancy Pelosi from becoming Speaker. If the Democrats take back the House, Pelosi is a major overhaul of the rules regarding how lobbyists can interact with members of Congress:
In a little-publicized statement, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), theHouse Democratic leader, has promised to change the chamber's rules toreflect the provisions of her not-so-modestly-named Honest Leadershipand Open Government Act of 2006. The months-old measure would, amongother things, prohibit House members from accepting gifts and travelfrom lobbyists or from organizations that employ lobbyists.
ThePelosi bill includes changes not only to House rules but also tofederal laws. Any changes in law would have to be approved by theSenate and the president before they could take effect. But the Housecan alter its own rules anytime, and that's precisely what Pelosiproposes to do as the House's first official act next year -- after itselects her as speaker.
But Pelosi is not only a threat to lobbyists, but the Republican Party as well. Although appearing as a nice grandmother on the outside, she is a strong leader on the inside that is not easily intimidated. Republicans know what they are in for if Pelosi becomes Speaker, which is why she is being used as a prop in numerous on Democratic candidates in pivotal races. One such claims that Pelosi will spread her "homosexual agenda" as Speaker -- even though Pelosi herself is not homosexual. The ad certainly implies that she is.
The strategy to reduce the power of high-priced lobbyists in Washington is just one of the many agenda items she wants the Democrats to have addressed in the of the new Congress in January.
Terry Nelson, who was in charge of the unit within the RNC that created the anti-Ford ad last week that had racial undertones, is also the of John McCain's PAC that raises money for his possible presidential bid. And according to , Nelson is also the head of a consulting firm called -- which acts as a publicist for Wal-Mart. But within the last few days, Wal-Mart its ties with Nelson due to all the outrage.
However, regardless of the Terry Nelson's smutty ad, reports that John McCain is refusing to fire him:
Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) PAC has no plans to cutties with top GOP strategist Terry Nelson, who ended his contract withWal-Mart this week amid complaints from Democrats and union groups overhis authorizing of the now-infamous Tennessee Senate ad linkingDemocratic nominee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. to a Playboy Bunny.
Nelsonheads the Republican National Committee's (RNC) independent expenditureunit, which sparked a pre-election dustup over racial rhetoric in theSouth with an ad featuring a bubbly white woman claiming to have metFord "at the Playboy party" and telling the young black Democrat,"Harold, call me!"
TheDemocratic National Committee (DNC) took aim on Sunday at RNC ChairmanKen Mehlman, who defended the Tennessee ad, and McCain, whose StraightTalk America PAC hired Nelson in March as a senior adviser.
"EvenWal-Mart fired Terry Nelson for his role in making this ad. Instead ofdoing what's right, Ken Mehlman and Republicans like John McCaincontinue to stand by Terry Nelson and these racist, divisive campaigntactics," DNC Communications Director Karen Finney said, adding that"Ken Mehlman and John McCain should fire Terry Nelson."
As of this moment, they are continuing to embrace Nelson's campaign tactics.
If this is the kind of campaign John McCain plans to run in 2008, then he is more of a Rovian than a Maverick.
Good morning all. Just one week until the election. Can you believe it? What a campaign season this has been. Here are your daily political clips for Tuesday, October 31, 2006.
First Up: Cafferty lays a smack-down on Rumsfeld. He responds to Republican House Majority Leader John Boehner, who said that "Donald Rumsfeld is the best thing that has happened to the Pentagon in twenty-five years."
Second in Line: GOP candidates run from Bush. And they are smart for doing so.
Third: Jean Schmidt wants to store nuclear waste from around the world in her own Congressional District. VOTE for on November 7th!!!!!
Fourth: O'Reilly incorrectly labels embryonic stem cell research as "cloning." He also attacked a family that donated money to this cause.
Fifth, but not Least: Don't get Fooled again. Vote Democrat on November 7th!
While it appears like Jim Gibbons will cruise to victory in the Nevada gubernatorial election, video tapes might confirm that current U.S. Congressman Gibbons sexually assaulted a cocktail waitress in a parking garage in Las Vegas. The incident originally on October 13th. The Clark County Sheriff's office has been for their handling of of the case, and is being accused of giving Gibbons special treatment. Sheriff Bill Young has publicly endorsed Gibbons for Governor. This new added pressure has forced the District Attorney to take charge and re-open the case.
Late Monday night, the explained what was going on:
Mazzeo, a Las Vegas Strip casino waitress, accused Gibbons, 61, ofpushing her up against a wall Oct. 13 and propositioning her. Mazzeo,32, said she had been pressured and offered cash from people linked tothe Gibbons campaign to drop the complaint.
The five-termcongressman, who is in a close race with Democratic state Sen. DinaTitus for Nevada's open governor's seat, has denied wrongdoing and suedMonday to force police to release surveillance videos he said woulddisprove Mazzeo's claim.
A judge set an emergency hearing for Tuesday.
SheriffBill Young, who supports Gibbons for governor, said last week hisoffice would reopen the investigation if Mazzeo requested it. Young didnot immediately return a phone call Monday.
The Special Prosecutor and the Sheriff's office now have an excellent opportunity to prove to the nation that the city of Las Vegas is no longer run by mob tactics. Pressuring victims. Bribing her to drop charges. That is the Las Vegas of old, not the Las Vegas of the 21st century. Let's send the right message.
Of course, Gibbons has no incentive to get the Sheriff to cooperate. He is Democrat Dina Titus by a comfortable margin in recent polls. My guess is that this investigation will be stone-walled until after the November vote.
However, if you are as outraged about this as I am, and you happen to live in the great state of Nevada, please to help the Titus Campaign and prevent a potential assault suspect from becoming your next Governor.
Earlier today I reported on this blog about a that showed Democratic Senate challenger James Webb leading incumbent Republican Senator George Allen 48% to 43%, and among leaners by a 47% to 43% margin. I was very skeptical about that poll at first because it was conducted for the DSCC.
But on Sunday night, the well-known polling company, who had Allen leading until this point, now has Webb ahead. When "leaners" are included, the challenger's lead is outside the margin of error:
Virginia Senate Race
Likely Voters - Including Leaners (10/25 results) (R) George Allen - 46% (50%) (D) James Webb - 51% (48%)
Likely Voters - WIthout Leaners (R) George Allen - 46% (D) James Webb - 48%
In other words, almost all of the undecided voters are leaning towards challenger James Webb.
I don't want to overstate this, but this poll is probably the best political news that I have heard in my entire young life. Please hear me out on this. The Rasmussen poll shown above comes just days after the attacks by George Allen on James Webb's war book, which contained a few sexually explicit scenes that reflected life in certain parts of the world. so, as according to GOP script, the Allen campaign was out in full force portraying Webb as anti-family values. Conventional wisdom would have pointed to last week as marking the end of Webb's Senate hopes. But instead, the poll tells a different story. It tells the story of a new, much more mature electorate that has become immune to smears, and is no longer persuaded by twisted stunts of the kind that Allen pulled last week. Voters are above all that. They know what is happening. They aren't as dumb as the Republican spin machine thinks they are. For Senator Allen to pull what he pulled last week was an insult to the intelligence of all Virginia voters, especially at a time when thousands of U.S. soldiers are dying in Iraq. Voters sniffed it out, and they appear to be voting for change next week.
Let this be a rule for all politicians in years to come. If you play dirty games like George Allen, then your opponent will get a positive bounce in the polls. If you discuss real issues, such as the safety of this country and and how to tackle corruption in our nation's Capitol, then you will earn the respect of voters. Don't insult their intelligence.
Fully realizing by now that U.S. troops will be in Iraq for the rest of the Bush presidency, from a public relations standpoint the Pentagon is making the smart move of getting ready for the long haul. They are creating a new division inside the Pentagon to counter what they consider to be misleading anti-war rhetoric:
The initiative comes amid plummeting domestic support for the war in Iraq and just before crucial mid-term congressional elections in whichopposition Democrats are contesting Republican control of the Congress.
Eric Ruff, the Pentagon press secretary, insisted that the new publicaffairs program was not prompted by either the elections or pollsshowing that only about 37 percent believe the war is going well.
"What were looking at doing is, 'How can we get better, how can we getfaster, how can we transform public affairs?'," he told reporters.
"And we're looking at being quicker to respond to breaking news. Beingquicker to respond, frankly, to inaccurate statements," he said.
"And we're looking at this whole issue of new media -- podcasting, andIM-ing and all those kinds of things, where people are basicallyrunning circles inside us," he said.
Ruff disclosed the expanded operations after questions were raisedabout a wall being built in the Pentagon press operations center thatwill separate the new unit from Pentagon public affairs officials whodeal with the media.
Still no word on when this will be completed, nor what effect it will have on daily Pentagon Q&A sessions with reporters.
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