MO-Sen: Race tied, but election fraud likely

This latest CNN poll will hopefully motivate all the volunteers inside the Claire McCaskill Campaign to work overtime and make sure they can maximize turnout in every precinct.  Among "registered voters" McCaskill has a significant lead.  However, among "likely voters" the race is tied:

Missouri Senate Race

Among Registered Voters
(R) Jim Talent - 43%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 51%

Likely Voters
(R) Jim Talent - 49%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 49%

With such a large difference between registered voters and likely voters, Missouri would make an ideal place for GOP election fraud.  Think about it.  McCaskill has the support of so many non-likely voters.  Demographically speaking, these voters usually tend to be single woman, minorities and the disabled.  Back in August, the New York Times ran a story about how 200,000 Missouri voters lack the new government-issued photo ID, which costs money (even though the U.S. constitution forbids a polling tax.  Really, follow the link to read the amendment!).  Surely, the number of Missouri voters without the ID has decreased since August.  However, even if there are 50,000 or 20,000 of them on election day, that is a lot of ineligible voters and could make the difference.  It is highly probable that a situation could unfold where tens of thousands of usually a-political voters show up to vote and don't have that specific government-issued ID.

For those reasons, expect this race to be within a point and a half on election night -- even though McCaskill should win easily.