A new internal poll of the Tennessee Senate race conducted by puts Ford ahead of Corker by five points:
Tennessee Senate Race
(R) Bob Corker - 43% (D) Harold Ford - 48%
(560 likely voters via phone)
This internal poll might be skewed a little bit, especially since almost every other recent poll puts Corker slightly ahead of Ford. However, a new Poll did show the race tied over the weekend at 48%. This is significant because the Survey USA Poll before that showed Ford losing, meaning that since then Ford has had the momentum.
A Virginia U.S. Senate poll conducted by between October 26th and October 29th was released today, and it showed incumbent Republican George Allen trailing Democratic challenger James Webb outside the margin of error:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 43% (D) James Webb - 48%
Survey of 811 likely voters Margin of error: /-3.5%
Among leaners, Webb leads Allen by four points, 47% to 43%.
When those questioned were asked to say who they voted for in 2000, 50% said Bush and 42% said Kerry. As the blog explains, this almost mirrors the official 2004 election results in the state of Virginia, which was Bush 54% and Kerry 46%.
Remember though, this was an internal poll conducted specifically for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by an independent research group . Sometimes it is difficult to trust these internal polls. Nonetheless, the fact that it is outside the margin of error is encouraging.
There is significant chatter within the intelligence community that suggests the terrorist organization Al Qaeda will try to impact the upcoming midterm election, whether by delivering video threats or launching terrorist attacks, according to sources:
A senior counterterrorism official, anonymous, like other officialsNEWSWEEK spoke to, because the subject is sensitive, says that based onprevious patterns—such as the release of a rare bin Laden tape justbefore the 2004 presidential vote—a message before Election Daywouldn't be surprising. Private expert Evan Kohlmann, who consults forthe Feds on terror probes, says Al Qaeda has lately released tapes at arate of two or three per month. This month, he says, they are "short byone or two," so he thinks a pre-election message is a "very goodlikelihood." Another U.S. official says intel experts believe Al Qaedawants to be "relevant" to the U.S. political process.
...Overseas, the threat is more ominous: reports of a possible attack onSaudi oil installations (which could raise U.S. gas prices). Theperpetrators would probably be Saudi Qaeda affiliates; methods couldinclude truck or boat bombs. U.S. agencies are not certain of thethreat's credibility, an official said.
I am among the school of thought that thinks that the only way we can lose the war against terrorism is if we let the terrorists scare us into changing our democratically elected representative system that is held together by the rule of law. In other words, it isn't what they do to us that can destroy the very fabric of our way of life, it is what we do to ourselves out of fear that causes us to crumble from within.
Al Qaeda is aware of this, and therefore sees every incentive to cause a problem right before our election. They know that any video message or terrorist attack within the coming week would be used by the Bush Administration for political gain via fear-mongering. Voters beware!
This week we will get an idea of how popular the Bush Administration is in the state of Montana. Both George W. Bush and Dick Cheney will make appearances in Montana this week, doing all they can to save incumbent Conrad Burns' struggling campaign and possibly the Republican majority in the US Senate. The Vice President will join Burns on Wednesday, and the President will travel to Billings for a similar event on Thursday.
Not surprisingly, the Tester Campaign is to the visit:
Tester spokesman Matt McKenna said the Democrats "welcome the president to Montana."
"He'llget a firsthand look at a state hungry for change and ready to replaceSenator Conrad Burns with an honest leader committed to putting Montanafirst," McKenna said.
This comes as the has endorsed Democrat Jon Tester for US Senate.
A taken on October 26th gives Tester a slight advantage:
Montana Senate Race
(R) Conrad Burns - 48% (D) Jon Tester - 51%
That poll is so significant because it means only that one percent of Montana voters are undecided. This race will be won or lost this week when Cheney and Bush show up. They will need to convince Tester-leaning voters to switch sides, since he is already over the 50% mark.
In Brief: The Democrats will pick up no fewer than 14 U.S. House seats this November.
After a thorough analysis of nearly 100 House races, we can conclude that there are 64 House seats -- 59 Republican and 5 Democrat -- that have at least an outside chance of switching hands on election night. Thanks to a diverse collection of polling data and recent political trends, these 64 races can be grouped into one of three categories: "Definite Dem Win", "Potential Dem Win" and "Long-shot Dem Win."
Following this objective, careful andconsistent analysis by of every contested U.S. Houserace, the following conclusions have been reached (keep in mind that the Democrats need 15 House seat pick-ups to capture majority):
The Democrats will "definitely" pick up 14 House seats
The Democrats can "possibly" pick up as many as 45 House seats
The Democrats have a "long-shot" of picking up as many as 59 House seats
Each of the races are included below.
Definite Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate is winning comfortably or is consistently outside the margin of error in all polling data within the last month (color designates which party currently controls seat):
Possible Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate is within the margin of error or is behind but closing in fast on the opponent (color designates which party currently controls seat):
Long-Shot Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate has consistently been behind and outside the margin of error, but still can make up the ground in one week (color designates which party currently controls seat):
Therefore, we come up with the totals (Democrats need 15 pick-ups to take majority):
Definite = 14 seat gain
Definite Possible = 45 seat gain
Definite Possible Long-shot = 59 seat gain
Barring an unforeseen national event, the Democrats are in a great position to win back majority. These projections prove that even a low Democratic turnout would allow them to possibly capture the House by a very slim margin. If there is a high Democratic base turnout, then the Democrats will have a large majority heading into the new Congress in January. If there is a high Democratic turnout coupled with a deflated turnout among culturally conservative voters, then expect a landslide in the Democrats' favor.
You can view the PDF of the chart that I made , which shows the match-ups in each contested House race followed by the conclusions that I drew from each one.
"The Blue State 2006 U.S. House Projection" has been completed, and will be released just hours from now at 12 AM ET/9 PM PT. It contains a breakdown of the 64 contested U.S. House races for the upcoming November 7th election.
Each race fits into one of three categories: "Definite Dem Win", "Possible Dem Win" or "Long-shot Dem Win". The chart also contains a key that defines the criteria for each of the categories.
Again, come back in about three and a half hours for the complete analysis.
On the same day as Shiite terrorists abducted and 17 Iraqi police forces in the southern Iraqi city of Basra, a U.S. finds that about one out of every twenty-five U.S. weapons in Iraq have gone unaccounted for -- more than 14,030 weapons in all:
The Defense Department cannot account for14,030 weapons — almost 4 percent of the semiautomatic pistols, assaultrifles, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and otherweapons it began supplying to Iraq since the end of 2003, according toa report from the office of the special inspector general for Iraqreconstruction.
Themissing semiautomatic pistols, assault rifles, machine guns and otherweapons will not be tracked easily: The Defense Department registeredthe serial numbers of only about 10,000 of the 370,251 weapons itprovided — less than 3 percent.
That all amounts to a grand total of $133 million worth of missing weapons.
Here are the rest of the in Iraq that took place on Sunday:
BAGHDAD - A car bomb in Binoog district of Baghdad killed two policeman and wounded two, an Interior Ministry source said.
BAGHDAD - Two car bombs exploded in the Furat district, but only one woman was wounded, the Interior Ministry said.
AL-SHIRQAT - A roadside bomb killed one policeman in the town of al-Shirqat, police said.
BAGHDAD - Police found 31 bodies in different parts of Baghdad in the past 24 hours, Interior Ministry sources said.
BAGHDAD - A sports presenter at the state television station Iraqiya was killed with her driver in Baghdad, police said.
MOSUL - Police found three bodies in the northern city of Mosul, including a policeman and an off-duty soldier, police said.
FALLUJA - Police found four bodies bearing signs of torture and bulletwounds in a deserted area near Falluja, 50 km (32 miles) west ofBaghdad, police said. The bullet-riddled body of a kidnapped policemanwas found, dumped in the town.
BAGHDAD - A bodyguard of PrimeMinister Nuri al-Maliki was shot and wounded in a government car onSaturday in Baghdad, government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said. Malikiwas absent. Gunmen in a car also killed two policemen in centralBaghdad.
DHULUIYA - U.S. helicopters struck Dhuluiya, killing 11people, including three brothers, and wounding six on Saturday,according to police and the Tikrit Joint Coordination Centre.The U.S. military referred reporters to a statement saying U.S. forcesand Iraqi police had killed 17 suspected insurgents in an airstrike andground clashes early on Sunday near Balad.
BALAD - Gunmen killed three Iraqi soldiers in Tal al-Thahab village near Balad, police said.
SAMARRA - A car bomb exploded near a primary school in Samarra, wounding eight, police said.
The violence is getting so out of control that, according to writer Holly Yeager, it could delay President Bush's proposed timetable of handing over complete security to the Iraqis within the next 18 months. George W. Bush less than 15 months left in his presidency.
In the latest just released this morning puts the race dead even:
Missouri Senate Race
(R) Jim Talent - 47% (D) Claire McCaskill - 47%
Local pollster Del Ali, the one who conducted the poll, said that Jim Talent is in big :
The fact that Talent "has thrown the kitchen sink'' at McCaskill, inthe form of attacks and negative ads, underscores his campaign'sconcern, Ali said.
"If you're ahead, you're taking the high road."
Even though the race is a statistical tie as shown in most pre-election polls, McCaskill will probably get the edge thanks to high turnout caused from two ballot measures -- one to raise the minimum wage, and the other for .
The Kansas City Star, the city newspaper in Kansas City, Missouri, has officially Claire McCaskill.
If you want a prime example of how influential the lobbyists on Capitol Hill are, then look no further than U.S. trade relations with the Marianas Islands in the Pacific. This is not a new story, but it is a forgotten one. David Swanson of the writes about the deep relationship between Jack Abramoff and some Republicans, and how those relations protected slave labor:
Now visit the beautiful tropical islands described by disgracedHouse Majority Leader Tom Delay as "a perfect petri dish ofcapitalism." What's so perfect about Saipan and the other 13 NorthernMariana Islands? Primarily this: items produced there can carry thelabel "Made in USA" and be sold in the U.S. without tariffs or quotas,but the scandalously low U.S. minimum wage does not apply, and thepathetically minimal rights of immigrants and workers in the U.S. donot apply. There are no labor unions. Any worker can be terminated anddeported at any time for no cause.
The workers, mostly Chinese women, sew clothing for J. Jill, ElieTahari, Ann Taylor, Liz Claiborne, The Gap, and Ralph Lauren, amongothers. They pay so much money to obtain work and for shelter and food,that they can labor for a decade and still not pay it back. They serve,therefore, as indentured servants, sharing rooms and beds, lackinghealth care, and working extra unpaid hours for the reward of beingpermitted to also work paid overtime. Pregnancy is unacceptable, costsof it not covered, and amateur abortion encouraged.
The island of Saipan does great business in prostitution for Asianbusinessmen and American soldiers. Approximately 90 percent of theprostitutes are former Chinese garment workers. Others had beenrecruited for jobs like waitressing but were forced into prostitutioninstead.
Over the past decade, 29 bills in Congress have sought to apply aminimum wage standard and/or immigration law to the Mariana Islands orto deny use of "Made in USA" to items produced there. Every one ofthese bills has failed. Some have won support in the Senate but beenblocked by the House Resources Committee. Others have won the supportof a majority of House Members but still been killed in that samecommittee.
Guess who earned $11 million in fees from the Marianas governmentand garment manufacturers? A fellow by the name of Jack Abramoff.
Republicans call themselves the moral majority. And I almost laugh.
You can read about the relationship between the Republican Congressional majority and the slave-friendly Saipan government in the Marianas Islands.
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