There is no way the latest Zogby Senate poll is accurate
Zogby conducted a bunch of election polls for key Senate races. As you will read, some of them are so far off from the polls we have been looking at over the last several weeks. Quite frankly, they might be inaccurate. Bob Menendez apparently has a huge lead in New Jersey, while George Allen is cruising in Virginia by 11-points.
Well, I'll let you be the judge of this :
CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, hasa 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger NedLamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the partyprimary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.
MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leadsDemocratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percentin a contest that has been close all year.
MONTANA - Democrat JonTester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percentafter Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donationsfrom associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen asinsensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.
NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerableafter polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger TomKean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.
OHIO - Republican Sen. MikeDeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brownat 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.
TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring SenateRepublican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. andRepublican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlockedat 40 percent each.
VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen hassurvived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.
Pollster tries to justify these numbers on his web site. Like I said before, I don't think these numbers are accurate. If you compare the numbers of six major polling companies, and one of those six is so far out of step with the other five, it likely deems that one polling company inaccurate. For example, Democrat Bob Menendez is in serious trouble in New Jersey. Every other poll besides this one has Kean out in front by five or six points. This one gives Menendez a 10-point advantage. What the heck? That one is definitely off.
Or, over in Connecticut, where the poll states that Ned Lamont only has 33% of the vote. I have never seen it that low before. Almost every other poll puts Lamont in the low-to-mid 40s, about seven or eight points behind Lieberman. This poll suggests a 20-point spread.
The funniest of them all was Virginia. How could George Allen have a 10-point lead on James Webb -- when every other poll over the last week has put the race neck-and-neck?
Even the Ohio race doesn't make sense. There is such an anti-incumbent sentiment there. How could Brown and DeWine be tied -- especially after DeWine was schooled in their debate on Meet the Press?
Keep in mind that the Zogby Poll was conducted between . A lot has changed in the political landscape since then (Foley). So, putting it bluntly, I deem this poll irrelevant.
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