What Obama's New Hampshire trip is doing to the Democratic field

(Before I get to the meat of this post, just know that I am still mostly impartial when I write blog entries on this site about the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination.  Just because I am following Obama's New Hampshire trip this weekend doesn't mean I am supporting him.  He is definitely the most "interesting" candidate at this point, in terms of his personal story.  Yet, as with every other Democratic hopeful, there are some obvious strategic downsides to his candidacy.  So just because I spend more time on three or four candidates during a given two-week period does not mean I either like or dislike them more than the rest of the field.  I have been getting a lot of e-mails lately criticizing me for being obsessed about Barack Obama and Evan Bayh -- even though I am truly not.  So that is why I am bringing this up.)

Still testing the waters a bit, Barack Obama is making a very important trip to New Hampshire this weekend.  Sunday is the big day.  He will engage in a book-signing event in Portsmouth, and then head over and speak at a major party event in Manchester.

Obama told the AP he is still trying to get used to all the attention:

"The whole prospect of a presidential race for me is not something I'veengineered. I was on a different internal clock," Obama said in atelephone interview. "It's only been in the last couple of months thatthe amount of interest in a potential candidacy reached the point whereI had to consider seriously."

He is expected to make an announcement regarding whether or not he will be running in just a matter of weeks.  After that time, Hillary Clinton can either start panicking or give off a huge sigh of relief.

Actually, in my own personal view, Barack Obama's candidacy might even help Hillary Clinton in the short-term.  Between January and about July, the race will be on to see which individual can establish themselves as the "anti-Hillary" candidate.  Political wisdom might suggest that Obama and Edwards would split the donations from the anti-Hillary crowd, thus giving Hillary an even  larger relative advantage.

One more point.  All this presidential talk was not even supposed to happen this early.  What we are seeing is really unprecedented in terms of the impact of star power.  Originally, the plan was that Hillary Clinton would not announce her candidacy until March or April of 2007.  But with Barack Obama stealing the spotlight, Clinton needs to move everything up in order to reduce the amount of consecutive months the media spends trying to hype up Obama.  So now with Hillary trying to aggressively match Obama, that forces everyone else in the field to move their announcements up as well.  That was why we saw Tom Vilsack and Evan Bayh announce within the last few weeks.  Expect John Edwards and possibly Bill Richardson to also move everything in their calendar up a few weeks.  The only candidate that can get away with starting late is Al Gore.  Even if Gore entered the race in September, the buzz he could create might shift the entire Democratic political landscape -- especially if voters were getting bored with the pre-Gore presidential field.

Obama's visit in New Hampshire is extremely important because it forces other candidates to behave just as aggressively in order to attract the finite amount of media attention that there is.

Comments

[jj]

It is so obvious that Obama is too young, he doesn't even have half a term on his belt, the experienced version of him, I think, is Senator Evan Bayh Of Indiana, check him out, check him out at bayhpartisan.com or check out some clips of him on youtube.com

[Administrator: Todd]

Do you work for Evan Bayh? Not that it matters, but just wondering. I sort of disagree about Bayh. Instead of Bayh being a more experienced version of Obama, I think Bayh is a more experienced version of Edwards. But when it comes to policy, Bayh is sort of in bed with the crediters....so I worry about that. Edwards is a little too close to trial lawyers. Obama, you are right, is not experienced in terms of the Senate. But he does have foreign policy credentials. Gore, certainly is still not liked by a number of people. However, the former Vice President might be the most well-rounded in terms of his ability to govern. A lot would get done under Gore. No one is really talking about Richardson. That guy is quite an interesting candidate. There are a number of positives when it comes to nominating a governor. Senators each have a voting record that can be attacked. Not so with governors.