The Blue State

House races still up in the air

The election is not over yet for a number of Democratic House candidates who are locked in tight battles.  Here are the nail-biters.  Pay close attention to the House race in Washington state's 8th district, where only 59% of the precincts have been reported:

Connecticut 2nd District (100% reporting)
(D) Joseph Courtney - 50% (121,321 votes)
(R) Robert Simmons - 50% (121,151 votes) - incumbent

Georgia 12th District (99% reporting)
(D) John Barrow - 50% (71,500 votes) - incumbent
(R) Max Burns - 50% (70,641 votes)

New Mexico 1st District (99% reporting)
(R) Heather Wilson - 50% (102,376 votes) - incumbent
(D) Patricia Madrid - 50% (100,981 votes)

Ohio 2nd District (100% reporting)
(R) Jean Schmidt - 51% (113,932 votes) - incumbent
(D) Victoria Wulsin - 49% (111,609 votes)

Ohio 15th District (100% reporting)
(R) Deborah Pryce - 51% (101,636 votes) - incumbent
(D) Mary Kilroy - 49% (98,100 votes)

Washington 8th District (59% reporting)
(R) Dave Reichert (77,597 votes) - incumbent
(D) Darcy Burner - (74,861 votes)

Wyoming - at large (100% reporting)
(R) Barbara Cubin - 48% (93,197 votes) - incumbent
(D) Gary Trauner - 48% (92,227 votes)

As of this moment, the Democrats have captured 29 GOP seats, giving them a significant 229 to 196 seat advantage.  If we win in Connecticut and hold the seat in Georgia, as we will likely do, then the net gain for the Democrats will be 30 seats. 

In the end, we might add the 8th District in Washington to the list as well.  Only 59% of the precincts have reported.  This district is located about fifteen minutes from where I live.  I know this usually solid GOP district very well.  It is growing in population rather fast, and therefore has turned more progressive as of late.  40% of the districts from King County, the more progressive area of this district, have yet to be counted.  Burner is in very good shape at the moment.  We will have to be patient as the rest of the ballots come in.  This would be an excellent pick-up because Republican Dave Reichert has voted with President Bush 90% of the time, and Darcy Burner has never run for office before.  So for an ex-Microsoft employee-turned-political novice like Burner to pull this off, it would send a message that voters in that heavily Republican district want a fresh independent face.

I will keep tabs on these races in the hours and days to come.

(Video) VA-Sen: Imagine if those threatening calls never happened

Had it not been for the Allen Campaign's threatening phone calls, this race might not be as close.

Just days before the election, a number of Virginia residents started getting phone calls from individuals at the Allen Campaign disguising themselves as members of the Virginia Elections Commission.  The people who were called were residents from Northern Virginia and some predominantly black districts.  They were told to not show up to vote or else they would be arrested.

Below is what one of those phone calls sounded like:

Even though this whole case might soon be moot, as it is expected that James Webb will maintain his 7,000-vote lead, we might not be talking about possible recounts if these calls had never happened.  Reportedly, thousands of people in Virginia got these phone calls.

All we can hope now is that James Webb hold onto his lead.

Bush loses his cool at press conference

I already wrote about my initial reactions of the press conference.  But the more that I think about the tone of the exchanges, President Bush was indeed very angry.  He has been angry at press conferences before.  However, unlike any other time, the press knew it and some members of the press even tried to frame questions in a way that would get under his skin.

Read this exchange between President Bush and a reporter around the end of the press conference.  I remember watching this earlier this morning, and immediately after the question was asked in this smart ass sort of way, I thought Bush was going to lose it.  He almost did (and the words in the parenthesis below were inserted by me):

Q: I want to ask you about the thump that you took in yesterday's rodeo (obviously making fun of Bush's Texas sayings). You said you were disappointed, you were surprised...

BUSH: See, there you go. (almost losing it)

Q: You said you were...

BUSH: You notice that — taking one...

Q: That was thumping without a "g," correct?   I just want to make sure we have it right for the transcript. (making fun of Bush's accent, while Bush glares at him)

You said you were surprised. You didn't see it coming. You were disappointed in the outcome.

Does that indicate that after six years in the Oval Office you're outof touch with America for something like this kind of wave to come andyou not expect it?

And on a semi-related note, does Nancy Pelosi look much like Bob Bullock to you?

(LAUGHTER)

BUSH: It's an inside joke; I'm not commenting on it. (almost over the edge)

Secondly, I'm an optimistic person. That's what I am. And I knew we were going to lose seats. I just didn't know how many.

Q: How could you not know that and not be out of touch?

BUSH: You didn't know it either.  (again, almost about to lose it)

So who is Bob Bullock, whom the reporter referred to?  Bob Bullock was the Democrat Lieutenant Governor of Texas when President Bush was Governor there.  Over and over throughout the 2000 campaign season, Bush invoked Bullock's name to cite instances when he worked with the Texas Democratic Party beyond partisan lines.  Six years later, we can say with certainty that Bush has failed when it comes to being bipartisan.  The reporter's joke had to do with the fact that the election now forces Bush to work with Pelosi.  In other words, Bush should stop invoking Bullock's name every time he is criticized for his lack of partisanship, and instead get out of his protective bubble and work with Pelosi and the Democrats for the good of the country.

Again though, this is a verbal stab that only President Bush understood.  I think this reporter was really going after Bush in a way that was uncalled for.  There is nothing wrong with challenging the President in each press conference.  But when you challenge the President, it should be on substantive issues -- otherwise it is a waste of our time.  The press corps has a job: to act as the only unfiltered bridge between the President and the American people on a daily basis.  Every second they waste asking him questions just for effect, in hope that he loses his temper and creates a ten-second sound bite for the network news, is a second wasted that could be spent challenging him on one of the most disastrous wars in American history.

With Cheney now no longer as close to him in comparison to before he fired Rumsfeld, President Bush is very vulnerable.  He is also emotionally unstable.  The American people can see that for themselves.  But the last thing we need is some wise-guy reporter wasting our time playing a psychological game of "who is your daddy" with the President.

VA-Sen: Conflicting reports from the Allen Campaign

This morning, a spokesperson for James Webb, the Democrat who currently leads by a 7,000-vote margin with 99% counted, indicated that they are ready to resist any games that Allen's people might try to play with the votes:

Webb spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd said thecampaign respects that the canvassing process is continuing, but saidthat as a practical matter, "the vote's been counted and Jim won."

"This isn't hanging chads or anything like that.I don't think the voters will like it if the Allen camp tries to makethis into a hanging chad situation because it's not the same thing,"she said.

Before Webb claimed victory early Wednesday,Allen urged his supporters to watch carefully as the remaining returnswere counted.

"The counting will continue through the night,and will continue tomorrow, and I know you will all be like eagles andhawks watching as every one of these votes are counted," Allen said.

This recount will be a very long process.  On November 27th, once the original election is certified by the Virginia Board of Elections, George Allen then has ten days to ask for a recount.  According to WVEC, a local tv station in Virginia, the only two other recounts in modern Virginia history barely changed anything:

McDonnell, aRepublican, defeated state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds by only 360 votes outof nearly 2 million cast in last year's election. Errors discoveredduring the canvass narrowed McDonnell's lead from about 3,300 votes to323 votes. He gained 37 votes in the recount.

"Because Virginia's voting procedures are very good and gettingbetter, once that detailed scrubbing of the vote is done through thecanvassing there's little change," McDonnell said.

In the only other statewide recount in modern Virginia history,Republican Marshall Coleman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L.Douglas Wilder's 7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

In the only otherstatewide recount in modern Virginia history, Republican MarshallColeman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L. Douglas Wilder's7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

While the state seems almost likely to head for a recount,  I received information via email that George Allen might just concede, otherwise his political career would be tarnished forever.  A source in D.C., that I have been using for the last two months for some information regarding this campaign, informed me today that there are rumors swirling around northern Virginia that George Allen will indeed concede.  This could happen within the next few hours, or within the next two days.

For awhile, I thought my source was nuts in his conclusion, so initially I did not want to post it on this site.  But over at the Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas confirmed an almost identical rumor.  So we will have to wait and see.

What happened in Yellowstone County, MT?

After a long and mostly decisive night, we still can't overstate our wins.  The Senate is not over, if the Republicans have anything to say about it.  They will try and get Montana and Virginia to change their vote totals.

The biggest mess is in Montana, where Jon Tester now leads Conrad Burns by 3,128 votes, according to CNN, with less than 1% left to be counted.  Here is the deal though: by state law, an automatic recount will be issued, free of cost to the candidate, if Burns trails by 0.25% or less.  However, if Burns is between 0.25% and 0.5% behind Tester, he can file a petition with the secretary of state's office and he must for the recount himself.  At the moment, Conrad Burns is within 0.15%, meaning there will be a recount no matter what.

The problem is we have not even got to a recount yet.  Some counties, such as Yellowstone, which is ironically Conrad Burns' home county, they are still counting after workers did not know how to operate the machines:

"Yellowstone County is counting their ballotsagain. They encountered some difficulty operating their vote-countingmachine, and as a result, they are counting their ballots again," saidBowen Greenwood, press representative for Montana secretary of state'soffice.

It is highly unlikely that Burns could make up the 3,128 vote difference, according to the Billings Gazette.  On the Billings Gazette web site, they have already declared Jon Tester the winner.  The Associated Press also declared Tester the winner.

Regardless, there is a pending recount.  We also need to get more information regarding what happened in Yellowstone County, and why poll workers were unable to work the machines?  Last night, I also remember hearing other reports of poll workers re-marking ballots because they had been marked by some voters with the wrong writing utensil.

I will stay on this.

JUST IN: According to the Great Falls Tribune in Montana, new votes from Butte-Silver Bow are now in, and Jon Tester has a 3,000-vote cushion.  Nonetheless, the battle over what happened in Yellowstone County begins.

The night things changed

My friends, we did it.  Six years of unilateralism, both home and abroad; six years of divisive wedge issues; six years of smears; six years of ideology before realism; six years of simple-minded logic; six years of an inability to govern -- and the American people finally saw enough.  Last night voters gave President Bush and his Republican Congress a vote of no confidence.

We also will be sending some fresh faces to Washington.  Assuming we prevail in the recounts, our new blood -- Jon Tester, James Webb, Claire McCaskill, Bob Casey, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Sherrod Brown -- will be joining their Senate and House colleagues to help assume the legislative majoritarian responsibility of applying a check on the Executive Branch.

However, this is not just about putting a leash on the Administration -- it is about setting our own agenda.  When 2008 rolls around, voters will compare the White House's agenda with Congress' agenda.  Who did more to help move our country forward during a tough time, they will ask?  We have to be bold.  We can't be against something without being for an alternative.

So what are we for?  Two words: acknowledging reality.  You can want to win in Iraq.  You can want to have a clean environment without energy independence.  You can want to build the economy without worrying about the national debt.  But all of a sudden it hits you: either you acknowledge reality, or our children and grandchildren pay for it.  So what is reality?  We must have energy independence -- and it requires more than drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.  It means investing in new technologies, which would open up an entirely new market of jobs for the middle class.  Energy independence also means no need for anymore foreign policy quagmires in the Middle East, and less of an excuse to pollute our finite world.  That is just one of the many issues that we will need to confront head-on in our new House and Senate.   The cost of education, deficit reduction, investing in new medicines, health care costs, and strategies on how to better fight the war on terror are other matters we need to address.

Anything is possible in this new atmosphere, including a let-down.  From day one, mark my words, the media will try to brand the Democrats as a party lacking a clear vision -- that is why it is important that we prove them wrong.  Plus, what an excellent opportunity this is.  Last night could not have gone any better (except for if Harold Ford won his race).  It would be a shame if we let this opportunity slip past us.

I look forward to following this new Congress in the months ahead, and making sure that we can put ourselves in a solid position to win back the presidency.  Last night was a night to remember.  Now there is work to be done.

U.S. Senate Results

The Democrats must win six of these eight races in order to capture Senate majority.  Results will appear on this page throughout the night:

Arizona: (R) Jon Kyl vs (D) Jim Pederson - GOP Hold

Maryland: (D) Ben Cardin vs (R) Michael Steele - Dem Win!

Missouri: (R) Jim Talent vs (D) Claire McCaskill - Dem Win!

Montana: (R) Conrad Burns vs (D) Jon Tester

• Updated Results: Tester leads by 2% (5,600 vote lead)
• Reported: 78% of precincts
• Notes: Please cross your fingers!

New Jersey: (D) Bob Menendez vs (R) Thomas Kean Jr - Dem Win!

Rhode Island: (R) Lincoln Chafee vs (D) Sheldon Whitehouse - Dem Win!

Tennessee: (R) Bob Corker vs (D) Harold Ford Jr - GOP Hold

Virginia: (R) George Allen vs (D) James Webb - Dem Win!

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan and Washington each will easily be won by the Democratic candidates, therefore will not be shown on this page.  However, you can click here to view the results.

<Keep refreshing this page.  These results will be updated continuously throughout the night>

Gubernatorial Results

DEMOCRATS WIN MAJORITY OF GOVERNORSHIPS!!!

The following are the results from each contested governors race.  They will be updated when we can determine a winner.  You can click here to find up-to-the-second results.  Currently, the Republicans hold 28 of the nation's 50 governorships.  The Democrats must win three out of the following five races to capture majority.  This page will be updated every time we can declare a winner:

• Colorado: (D) Bill Ritter vs (R) Bob Beauprez - DEM WIN!!!
  
• Arkansas: (D) Mike Beebe vs (R) Asa Hutchinson - DEM WIN!
  
• Maryland: (D) Martin O'Malley vs (R) Robert Ehrlich - DEM WIN!
• Minnesota: (D) Mike Hatch vs (R) Tim Pawlenty
• Idaho: (D) Jerry Brady vs (R) Butch Otter

I did not include New York, Ohio or Massachusetts since the Democrats are expected to win those GOP-held governorships rather easily.

Just back from voting

I voted about a half an hour ago without any problems.  Unfortunately, the smoothiness in how things went in my precinct cannot be echoed in other parts of the country.  Please, if you are going to vote, stay in line EVEN IF THEY TELL YOU TO GO HOME.  By law, if you are in line when the polls close, you can still vote.

I encourage all of you to text message or call all of your family and friends -- make sure they have voted.  The election coverage is about to begin.

VA-Sen: Very high turnout

The Associated Press is reporting very high turnout in Virgnia:

Reports from around Virginia early Tuesday indicated anextraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election, with perhaps 65percent of registered voters expected to cast ballots, state electionsofficials said. That would double the midterm turnout in 2002.

In Roanoke County, registrar Judy Stokes said turnout in theRepublican-leaning county was very heavy Tuesday morning. Two precinctshadn't reported their figures.

"They've been so busy they haven't had time to call in," she said.

Last night, George Allen took to the airwaves with a two-minute long television ad, appearing alongside Senator John Warner.  Warner asked voters to give Allen six more years.  But there aren't many undecided voters left in Virginia, so it will be interesting today to see the impact, if any, that the ad had.