Once the fighting begins, Iran policy is out of Bush's hands

When tensions with an adversary mount while cabinet officials disagree about how to go forward, it is easier for the more hawkish members of the cabinet to ultimately get their way.  Why?  Four words: the rules of engagement.

The movie Thirteen Days chronicled the feud that took place within the Kennedy Administration during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  The president, his attorney general brother, the secretary of defense, the UN ambassador and a few advisers to the president were among the administration officials that favored a naval blockade of Cuba.  The more hawkish cabinet members, on the other hand, wanted to provoke a wider war with the Soviets, for whatever reason, and were determined to make that happen by forcing the President Kennedy to carry out the rules of engagement on their grounds.

To make a long summary short, yes, the commander-in-chief does manage war policy -- but only to a certain point.  If soldiers get shot at and killed, the situation becomes harder for each side to control.  At that point, both sides find themselves more path-dependent on a war footing, and the war-mongering elements of each cabinet have a greater influence over policy.

With this Iran situation, a few things are unique.  First off, there might not be a disagreement among Bush's cabinet about attacking Iran.  For all we know, maybe it is Bush's goal to start a war.  Secondly, five U.S. soldiers were recently killed in Iraq by insurgents that may have been trained by Iranians.  Third, Bush has never engaged in any diplomacy with Iran at all.  Conclusion: unless the President or Congress dispatch an emergency envoy to the region, tensions with Iran could boil over to a point where neither Bush nor Ahmadinejad can out-flank Cheney's office and the Iranian Mullahs, both of which seem to want war.

The international body, without diplomacy, is an anarchic system.  Dialogue between countries reduces the chance that governments misinterpret the actions of one another.  Most wars are intentional.  But some wars are unintended, and occur because one side incorrectly reads the other, and then after the shooting begins it is too late.

Hopefully it is not too late to avert war with Iran.