Things can escalate with Iran in the blink of an eye

Iran retaliates against U.S. for consulate raid in Northern Iraq.

Iran announced late-Tuesday that their troops shot down a U.S. spy drone that tried crossing into Iranian airspace.  This came just days after U.S. forces stormed a consulate in Northern Iraq, which resulted in the arrest of six Iranians.  The recent rise in tensions with Iran worries some foreign policy experts because it may mark a point of no return that leads to an imminent military confrontation.

There are many conservative intellectuals that would like to provoke a war with Iran.  Tit-for-tat aggression on the part of U.S. and Iran would give hard-liners in both governments a better excuse to start a war.

Just look at what happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  In October of 1962, John F. Kennedy was pressured by the Pentagon hawks to attack Cuba.  An attack on Cuba would have forced the Soviets to retaliate against West Germany, forcing the U.S. into a direct nuclear war with the Soviet Union -- which was exactly what the hard-liners in both governments wanted.  Thankfully, Kennedy chose diplomacy instead of aggression.

Bottom line: when you engage in direct confrontation with an adversary, rational thinking takes a back seat to one-upmanship.  Before you can blink, diplomacy then becomes an afterthought.  This is otherwise known as the fog of war.

These incidents that are now happening with Iran, although they seem small at the moment, are very serious because they can quickly escalate into something much larger.  The last thing we need is a fifth Middle East conflict (with the other four being Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Palestine).