Zogby Poll: Obama leads in NH
Today, released a poll that was conducted among New Hampshire Democrats between January 15 - 17. Barack Obama leads the field, with Clinton and Edwards close behind:
New Hampshire Poll
Barack Obama - 23%
Hillary Clinton - 19%
John Edwards - 19%
John Kerry - 5%
Wesley Clark - 3%
Joe Biden - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Bill Richardson - 1%
Tom Vilsack - 1%
Not Sure - 22%
That poll is definitely not a surprise. New Hampshire voters, no matter what party they are, like to vote for the Washington outsider. Therefore, the fact that Clinton is currently behind is fairly reasonable. Also, Edwards trails as well because he is more popular among South-to-Midwest Democrats. In 2004, the only primary Edwards won was South Carolina. He currently leads in Iowa, and has notably strong local support among hotel workers and community politicians in Nevada, the other early voting state.
Still, regardless of her Washington establishment status, Clinton must do better in New Hampshire if she has any shot of winning the nomination. Putting it simply, the Democrats' primary schedule is not made for her. She is more popular in the traditionally blue coastal states like New York, Connecticut and California -- none of which vote until later in the primary season. New Hampshire went red in 2000, therefore cannot be included in that category. Still, it is a northern state. Voters in Iowa don't like her. She might be perceived as 'too east coast' for Nevada. The chances of her winning in South Carolina are even slimmer. Clinton needs to make the top-two in Iowa and Nevada, and then win in New Hampshire -- keeping her alive for the bluer primary states that come later.
For Edwards, Iowa is really make or break. He has been campaigning there since 2004, and knows the terrain better than anyone. A victory there would give him the extra media buzz to possibly take Nevada just three days later. No one thinks Edwards can win New Hampshire. But if he finishes in the top-two, he will have put himself in great shape to win South Carolina, like he did in '04. However, if Edwards cannot win Iowa, he will have a difficult time getting attention in the final days before the Nevada caucus. And remember, the primary schedule is red-heavy in the beginning two weeks. If after South Carolina he does not have more than two victories already, then you can kiss his chances good-bye.
As far as the other candidates go, they will need to find a way to take news time away from the big-three. Joe Biden is suited to finish well in South Carolina. He has a lot of support down there. Bill Richardson, geographically speaking, could make a strong showing in Nevada. Tom Vilsack will have to win Iowa, where he is Governor, in order to have any shot. Lastly, if Kerry did run, it would be like watching a train-wreck. He would have little shot in any state except for maybe New Hampshire.
Right now, Barack Obama definitely has the momentum. Although, Hillary Clinton is expected to make an announcement either next week or the week after, which could shake things up a bit.
I have a feeling that this whole primary season could be an Obama coronation. I just cant imagine many people taking Hillary and Edwards seriously when they are standing next to Obama.
And I'm giving up on Gore until further notice. Either he's the most patient guy alive or he's actually telling the truth.
Posted by: | 2007.01.18 at 05:57 PM
lol Let's hope he's patient. Now I sort of realize what you were saying before about Gore-Obama being an amazing combo.
I just wish I could go into a room with Edwards, lock the door, make sure there were no video cameras there, and ask him ONE question:
Is it all an act?
If it is an act, then congrats...he is good at what he does.
Posted by: | 2007.01.19 at 12:54 AM
Once Wesley Clark announces and starts getting more media attention.....he will make the other candidates look like fools.
Posted by: Clarkie 08' | 2007.02.12 at 02:12 PM
You might be right about him making the rest of the pack look like fools -- that is, if Clark actually announces. I doubt he will. Although, from an electoral standpoint, he would definitely make a good VP candidate. He is from Arkansas. He is a military guy. He speaks the language that resonates with many independents.
He had better be part of the next administration. Even Sec. of State would do.
Posted by: | 2007.02.12 at 04:13 PM
Read Obamas Book: http://www.amazon.com/Dreams-My-Father-Story-Inheritance/dp/1400082773
You will love it!
Posted by: Ingrid | 2008.01.30 at 02:53 PM