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2007.03.31

Edwards leads in new Iowa poll

In a recently released Zogby Poll of likely Democratic caucus goers in Iowa, John Edwards has grabbed the lead away from Hillary Clinton.  Barack Obama is not far behind in third (Conducted 3/26):

IOWA DEMOCRATS
John Edwards - 27%
Hillary Clinton - 25%
Barack Obama - 23%
Joe Biden - 3%
Richardson - 3%
Kucinich - 1%
Dodd - 1%
Not Sure - 15%

When you couple that 15% are undecided with the fact that some of the second tier candidates will probably drop out by summer, you get a race that is clearly up in the air.  John Edwards must win Iowa to stay alive, especially when keeping in mind his relatively limited fundraising ability as he battles out two high-profile candidates. 

If Barack Obama loses Iowa, he must win Nevada or New Hampshire to prevent the wave of endorsements in Hillary's favor.

Speaking of the former First Lady, she is the only candidate that can lose all of the first four contests and still be alive for the big February 5th showdown.  She is investing heavily in California, which is an "all-or-nothing state" (meaning that whoever wins California gets all of the state's delegates, and every other candidate gets zero).

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