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2007.04.24

Obama now even with Clinton in national polling

Yes, it is still very early.  Still, the trends show a fascinatingly steady increase of support for Barack Obama since March, while the number of Clinton backers has gone down.  In the latest Rasmussen Poll of likely Democratic primary voters nationwide, Obama and Hillary are now tied:

RASMUSSEN POLL
Barack Obama - 32%
Hillary Clinton - 32%
John Edwards - 17%
Bill Richardson - 3%

Look at the Rasmussen trend over time:

  • 4/23: Clinton - 32%, Obama - 32%
  • 4/16: Clinton - 32%, Obama - 30%
  • 4/09: Clinton - 43%, Obama - 29%
  • 3/26: Clinton - 37%, Obama - 25%
  • 3/12: Clinton - 38%, Obama - 26%

Bill Clinton and James Carville had better think of something.  They have spent the last week obsessing about Al Gore.  But unless the former Vice President enters the real race, Obama is the real threat.  The crowds that Obama attracts at each college campus visit are at Robert Kennedy levels.  There is so much excitement for his campaign.  Small donors are running his way -- and those include many younger female voters, which Clinton Campaign strategists thought would be theirs.

Fox News analyst Dick Morris might be off-base on a lot of things.  He is right about Hillary's support being more demographically based, while Obama's support is more politically based.  In the end, the question is whether women will vote based on their gender or policy.  If the election is about the issues, such as Iraq, then Obama will win.  If the election becomes more a gender loyalty litmus test, then the edge is in Clinton's favor.

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