Hillary searches for inevitability factor

It might not come down to Iowa after all.  Trailing in the polls in that first caucus state, Hillary Clinton's campaign has its eyes on a different strategy.  It involves the larger February 5th states like California, which send out absentee ballots weeks in advance.  The theory is if she campaigns hard in California and she leads in the polls there in mid-January, regardless of what happens in Iowa, there will be a certain inevitability factor about Hillary becoming the party's presidential nominee.

The New York Times wrote about this over the weekend:

The memorandum, by Mike Henry, the deputy campaign manager for Mrs. Clinton, made a case for ignoring Iowa'sfirst-in-the-nation caucuses next Jan. 14 and devoting the candidate’slimited time and resources to contests in much bigger states in thefollowing three weeks, including Florida, Arizona, California, NewJersey, Georgia and Texas.

Mr. Henry noted that all of thosestates, and several others whose primaries are set for early February,will be mailing out millions of absentee ballots in the weeks beforeIowans gather for their caucuses, potentially diminishing Iowa’simportance.

California will decide who becomes the nominee because the state has what is called an all-or-nothing primary.  Instead of dividing up the delegates like most states, the winner of the California primary receives all the delegates for that state.

Comments

[Sheldon]

Hillary Clinton will have to campaign in Iowa, as being the front-runner she can't bow out. But I think it likely she will put more resources into the big states on Super Tuesday than in Iowa, since a win among those states would give Hillary Clinton the inevitability she seeks.