22-point shift: Rural voters tilting blue

We are in the midst of a major electoral sea change.  In 2004, Bush decisively won the rural vote by 19 points.  Today, because of the Iraq war, Katrina and government corruption, Democrats now have the support of rural voters:

While the president won re-election over Democrat John Kerry  by a national margin of just more than 2 percentage points, rural respondents favored him by 19 percentage points in 2004.

Thesurvey found that rural voters prefer an unnamed Democraticpresidential candidate over a Republican candidate by 46 percent to 43percent. A Democratic congressional candidate leads a Republican on ageneric ballot test by 46 percent to 44 percent. And surveyrespondents, by a 45 percent to 33 percent margin, say that Democratshave done a better job than Republicans in paying attention to “ruralissues.”

21% of voters nationwide live in rural areas -- so this sea change is pretty significant.  Another poll that was conducted earlier this month confirmed the same trend.  There is so much voter fatigue, even in the most traditionally Republican counties nationwide.  They want change.  The trick for Republicans is finding a candidate that they can paint as anti-Washington establishment.  The front-runner to fit that mold appears to be Fred Thompson, even though in reality he was a lobbyist for twenty years, and repeatedly holds fundraisers for Scooter Libby.  But for the moment, conservative activists think he is above the problem.

Even so, swing voters have had enough.  This rural landslide coupled with broad voter fatigue will be tough for the GOP to overcome in '08.

Comments

[granny]

Thompson cannot "be above" his own history, unless we allow it. All the blogs need to publish the facts about this man's career, over and over ...however long it takes; However many ways can be found to say it.

The guy is a lobbyist, and partisan player... a full fledged member of the conservative club that believes in the government of : "we know best", "we decide" "you follow the rules as we make them up"

This would be a vote for continuation of what we have...

As would votes for Romney and Giuliani. All cut from a cloth that has virtually nothing to do with Government, " of the people, by the people and for the people"

[Nick Stump]

Check out ruralstrategies.org for more information on this poll.