A lot riding on an undemocratic vote this Saturday

Imagine running for student body president, and being able to prevent your opponent's friends from entering the gym to vote.  Better yet, imagine giving your friends money just to make sure they show up that day.  If you like what you hear, chances are you are either a candidate or participant in the Iowa Republican Straw Vote.

This Saturday, GOP activists will converge on Iowa State University, pay a poll tax, and then vote for their favorite GOP candidate.  Even though this is not a legitimate poll, two campaigns have already indicated that their candidates might drop out if they have a poor showing.

Now to the strangest part.  Mitt Romney is likely to win the straw poll because he is paying to bus his supporters in there.  In all, the former Massachusetts Governor has spent $5 million to help him win on Saturday.  Another tactic he and some other contenders are using is to take as many buses as possible, therefore limiting the number of buses available for other candidates, such as Mike Huckabee:

Mike Huckabee does not have buses.

Huckabee needs to get people to the straw poll in Ames this Saturdayand even if he had the money for buses — which he doesn’t — there areno buses left to rent.

Everything that moves in Iowa — buses, vans, tractors, combines,horses, mules, and hogs large enough to be saddled — have all beensnapped up by the other campaigns.

Mitt Romney has buses, Sam Brownback has buses, Tom Tancredo has buses and Tommy Thompson has buses.

But Mike Huckabee does not have buses.

Bottom line: the straw vote comes down to money and transportation.  May the most elite candidate win.

Comments

[Arlen]

There's more to Ames than just money and transportation, things like buses and barbeques only motivate people to turn out, not vote for a particular candidate. If somebody is totally not interested in voting for a candidate in the straw poll, they won't do it, no matter what incentives there are (especially when mingling with said uninteresting candidate is one of the primary incentives). Also note that there isn't any situation akin to "giving your friends money just to make sure they show up that day"... The straw poll is a fundraiser and campaigns have typically always paid for the voters' tickets, and that's not the same as bribing them.

Iowa, and Ames, are about organization (which is expensive), but it's also about retail politics. Some candidates get that, and others don't. As an example, I cite this:

I am here to tell you that Ron Paul won't do well at the Ames Straw Poll based on the fact that before this week Paul has only had 2 visits and spent 3 days in Iowa campaigning. [...]

To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don't decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the internet, which is Paul's strength. [...]

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparision to every Republican candidate. As of August 3rd, Tommy Thompson has been in Iowa 60 days, Sam Brownback has been in Iowa 51 days, Tom Tancredo has been in Iowa 47 days, Mitt Romney has been in Iowa 44 days, and Mike Huckabee has been in Iowa 39 days. Even Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who have been criticized for blowing Iowa off, have been here 16 and 17 days, respectively.

You have to actually spend significant time in the state, and build organization and support there. It's not as if you can just show up one day and hand out money and expect to win it.

[George]

When was last time the Republican Party chose someone other than the most elitist candidate?

[Chief Editor: Todd]

I really don't disagree with much that you wrote, Arlen. But when you get friendly calls from a campaign, saying they will drive you there and pay for part of it, give you some nice steak and fries, chances are -- I hate to say it -- that candidates who use these tactics are more likely to get your vote. Yes, you do need to already have a ground game in Iowa in order to do well in this poll. But at the same time, if you have buses and the money, you are more likely to do better.

And George, to answer your question about the last non-elite Republican, it was Abraham Lincoln. He served even less time in the Senate than Obama did before running.