Just how bad it is in Basra

It is certain that in the White House's Iraq report next much, which fittingly will be given on September 11th, the Administration will cling to the alleged successes in Al Anbar Province.  Of course, that is only one of 16 provinces in the war-torn country.  Bush will certainly not, however, be able to dispute the disturbing situation that is currently unfolding in Southern Iraq.  Basra is falling to rivaling Shiite gangs.  To make matters worse, the Brits are pulling out.

The violence in Basra could soon rival the level that we've seen in Baghdad:

An all-out, Shiite-on-Shiite conflict could plunge the oil-rich andmainly Shiite south of Iraq into chaos that could rival — or evensurpass — the bloodshed across Baghdad and the center of the countryfor more than four years.

While Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army recently suspended operations in Baghdad, they continue to push for power down south.  Here are the major players:

The major players in the power struggle in the south are the MahdiArmy militia loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and theSupreme Islamic Council of Iraq, the country's largest Shiite politicalparty and the patron of the Badr militia.

Security forces in theregion are known to be dominated by supporters of the Supreme Council,led by Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, whose family has been locked in along-running competition with al-Sadr's family over leadership ofIraq's Shiites.

The rivalries boiled over into deadly clashesMonday and Tuesday in the holy city of Karbala during a major Shiitereligious festival. Dozen of people were killed.

So in other words, you have political factions represented in parliament that are fighting amongst one another.  It is the Iraqi equivalent of the DLC going to war with progressive bloggers.  Al-Sadr and Abdul-Azis al-Hakim are both Shiites, but they have different agendas.

On top of that, two provincial governors down south have been assassinated in recent weeks.  With the British leaving at the end of this year, the White House has yet to explain its strategy for keeping the south from falling.  Don't expect anything new in Petraeus' testimony.  Just expect a lot of questions from lawmakers.