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2007.08.14

Obama needs to broaden his support

Picphoto081407obama Barack Obama may be down-to-earth and aware of the socioeconomic injustices that middle class Americans call reality on a daily basis.  Though, when you look at who is supporters are, they are college-educated, tech-savvy, Starbucks drinking professionals:

Of course, Obama's base of support is quite different from that of theGreat Commoner. In opinion polls, which Hillary Clinton hasconsistently led, he draws more support from professionals and collegegraduates than from working and lower-middle class people, who are themajority of voters.

Now obviously, not every Obama supporter fits this bold.  We are obviously talking in percentages.  But what is clearly the case is that Hillary absolutely dominates Obama among voters without a college education, which accounts for 66% of all Democratic primary voters.  Obama will not win unless he reaches this group of voters.

This is how bad it is for Obama:

According to the latest Cook Political Report survey, Hillary Clintonpolls 12 points higher among voters who haven't graduated from collegethan those who have; Obama's numbers are reversed. His problem: only 34percent of likely Democratic primary voters have college degrees. "Ifyou don't develop a solid base among downscale Dems, it's very hard toget the nomination," says demographer Ruy Teixeira. Unless Obama getsoff the wine track, he could end up the latest in a long line ofbrainy, reformist also-rans like Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas and BillBradley.

If you study political strategy, you know what is coming Obama's way.  Look for Clinton to brand Obama as an elite that has not spent enough time outside of Harvard to know what is best for working class Americans.  Of course, Clinton has been in Washington all of her political life, and refuses to stop taking money from lobbyists.  Obama has more than 258,000 donors from all walks of life.

But the reality is that until Obama appeals to a wider audience, percentage-wise it will be impossible for him to win the nomination.

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