The Christmas polling blackout

You will hear a lot more about this issue in a few months when people start realizing its potential impact on the Democratic nomination.  Because the Iowa Caucus will be moved up to early-January at the very least, candidates will have little idea of what to expect until the final few days.  No polls are ever taken during the Christmas holiday season.  The media will only be able to speculate who is ahead, and could presumably give misleading information about Hillary Clinton's inevitability.

Peter Hart understands the significance:

NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D) tells First Read that the revision ofthe primary calendar -- moving Iowa forward to the first few days inJanuary -- is really the most important political event that hashappened in the past few months. From his point of view, it changes theentire rhythm of the political cycle in a way that cannot be fullyappreciated, maybe not until after the nominating contests are over.

...Perhaps most significant of all is that no one will know who's up andwho's down right before Iowa. No self-respecting polling company, hesays, does polling between the 20th and 25th of December. So we verywell might have no idea how Iowa will break until after the results arein. If Hart's right and the leader before Christmas is the leader onCaucus day, does that make the window between Thanksgiving and December20 the three most important three weeks of the primary campaign?

Remember Dean's Iowa meltdown in 2004?  The very moment Dean started declining in the polls, the media became fixated on it.  The more the media brought it up, it became less inevitable that he would be the party's nominee.  All that bad press took its toll, and with just a few days left Kerry and Edwards overtook Dean and Gephardt.

On the Democratic side, more so than for the Republicans, the Iowa Caucus is about momentum.  It's also like one big game of 'king of the hill'.  When the press reports on good or bad trends, it can affect the way voters see the electability of a candidate.

If we were in Las Vegas, pretty much all of us would put money down that Hillary Clinton will head into Thanksgiving ahead in Iowa.  It's not a guarantee, but the chances are in her favor.  If Obama, Edwards or Richardson unknowingly develop a surge of positive momentum during Christmas week and the media is not able to report it, then it is less likely that undecided voters will rally around the candidate that happens to be on a roll.

Instead, what will happen is whoever is ahead in mid-December will probably win Iowa, and get a bounce heading into Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond.  What Peter Hart said is true -- the time between Thanksgiving and December 20th will be the most pivotal point of the campaign.  In other words, the '08 Democratic nomination could possibly be decided in 2007.

SIDE NOTE: Part of the reason why polls are not taken during Christmas is because they tend to be inaccurate.  Certain economic demographics are more likely to be gone from their homes during Christmas, and therefore cannot receive phone calls from pollsters.