Poll: Obama grabs lead in Iowa

If the Iowa Caucuses were to happen today, Hillary Clinton would likely be knocked off by newcomer Barack Obama.  Then again, it depends what kind of poll you look at.  Among all Democratic voters in Iowa, Clinton narrowly defeats Obama.  But if you only count likely caucus voters, which have always been more reliable numbers, then Obama wins.

Newsweek Poll:

Among all Iowa Democratic voters, Clinton draws 31 percent, followed byObama (25 percent) and Edwards (21 percent). But among likelycaucus-goers, Obama enjoys a slim lead, polling 28 percent to bestClinton (24 percent) and Edwards (22 percent). Bill Richardson is theonly other Democratic candidate to score in the double digits (10percent).

Also, it should be noted that Joe Biden has 5%.  None of the other candidates are above 1%.  Nine percent are still undecided.

When there is this big of a difference when you weigh registered voters versus likely voters, whoever is winning among likely voters tends to have the most passionate supporters that will turn out in that person's favor.

(Note: Usually I post polls in the morning Blue Radar.  But for now on, when it comes to Iowa, I will make those their own posts because of how important Iowa is, as we approach 100 days until the vote.)

Comments

[amir]

This is the only time for once Obama has 4% lead over others. In past he was always third. Iowa is its own Universe. If Obama consistently leads (as Clinton is doing in the National Polls) in the future Iowa polls, then only you can say he is the winner. But Iowa is Iowa, only the outcome of the primary will tell who really lead before. Iowains are the smartest voters
amir

[Jon]

Yay? A few weeks ago I guess I'd be more elated. Its a nice development but 2013 to end the war and his rumblings on attacking Iran were foolish and makes him sound like he doesn't want to win. Even still I hope he can dethrone Hillary. It's close and I never get my hopes up when it comes to American voters.