IA-08: Hillary pushes ahead in Iowa

The Des Moines Register newspaper came out with new numbers from Iowa.  10/7 results (5/21 results):

Likely Democratic Caucus-goers

Hillary Clinton - 29% (21%)
John Edwards - 23% (29%)
Barack Obama - 22% (23%)
Bill Richardson - 8% (10%)
Joe Biden - 5% (3%)
Dennis Kucinich - 1% (2%)
Chris Dodd 1% (0%)
Mike Gravel 0% (1%)

If I were John Edwards, I'd be worried.  His performance this morning on Meet the Press helped him some.  In reality though, he needs more donations in order to compete.  Hillary Clinton would be fine with Edwards winning Iowa, because the former North Carolina Senator lacks the funds to compete in all the other states.  In just five months, as you see above, Edwards' support depreciated by six points.

As for Obama, he hasn't gone anywhere.  His campaign might want to think about courting female voters.  Nationally, Obama trails Clinton by 40 points among women.  It's not much better in Iowa.  Also, what Iowa voters are looking for out of the Illinois Senator is proof that he would win in a general election.  If he appears electable, Iowa Democrats will consider him.

Comments

[MLP]

I'll admit I'm confused a bit.
As I travel about the blogosphere, I see very little support for Hillary. In fact, most of the blogs have expressed about the same views as here: UGH!
So where is all this support coming from? Is the RW just promoting her because she is their opponent of choice?
Or are the blogs less effective than we wish?

[Tom]

I don't think Edwards helped himself this morning. Russert grilled him mercilessly and Edwards spent the entire show running away from the questions and looking guilty. Edwards is going downhill fast. He's lost his advantage in Iowa and he's not bringing in campaign cash. It's looking like it'll be a 2-person race soon and if Obama doesn't step it up, it'll be over before the first votes are cast.

[granny]

I wish we would say more about the people and less about the "polls"

[Chief Editor: Todd]

I'd have to say that's a pretty accurate statement, Tom, about John Edwards. Initially, I thought he helped himself. But in the whole scheme of things, Russert helped raise more questions about Edwards than anything.

And sorry Granny, but I'm into political numbers and strategy. I cover just about everything on this web site that pertains to political campaigns -- both about the people and the strategy....the strategy I find the most interesting, only because this is my field of study.

And MLP, the reason why Hillary is ahead is because of name recognition. In the final month, all Iowa voters will take a look at Obama and Edwards. What O and E need to do is put an end to the whole notion about inevitability.