It is over for Obama unless he wins Iowa

The media has been repeating this for the last two weeks.  After being somewhat skeptical of the conventional wisdom at first, I could not agree more.  Even though in theory Obama has enough money to "compete" through the February 5th contests, which will probably end up happening no matter what, so many of his resources are front-loaded in Iowa.  Obama's Iowa field staff is expected to be at least double that of every other rival. 

If he can't beat Hillary there, it will be about impossible for Obama in every other state, especially South Carolina, where black voters, which make up about 50% of the Democratic electorate, are torn between the two candidates.  They are waiting to see if Obama has the potential to beat Clinton.  If he doesn't do that in Iowa, South Carolina Democrats will stay with the Clintons.

So can Obama win Iowa?  Maybe an even better question to ask is how would Obama win Iowa?

Most likely, it will depend on whether typically apolitical young voters show up to the caucuses.  If that happens, Obama will have the edge.  Obama's team believes they will turn out:

The campaign is trying to drum up supporters who are oftenoverlooked in politics, with much of the effort geared toward blacksand young people — even high school seniors.

"If they show up every Wednesday night to volunteer in your localoffice, do you think they aren't going to show up on election night?"Hildebrand said, wearing a T-shirt that said "Building a GrassrootsMovement" with the Obama campaign logo.

If Obama's strategy is successful he would surprise a skepticalpolitical establishment that doesn't put much faith in younger and newvoters turning out, especially in the Iowa caucuses.

In many ways, this is like Dean 2.0.  This time, for his sake, it had better translate into votes.

Comments

[Robt]

You know, Iowa cave in on Howard Dean. We ended up with Bush.

Iowa best get it together. Can one move to Iowa long enough to get involved in the Straws there? They may need some help on this on.

It is Bad enought he TV media has decided the one with the biggest campign fund chest is there winner. So the candidate that is beholden to the most is their candidate?

They encourage debt as a virture........