Just how many New Hampshire independents will show up

There is something special about New Hampshire.  In Iowa, the contest is usually decided by carefully-calculated, hardcore Democratic activists that take into account the unique responsibility they have in choosing an electable candidate for the general election.  New Hampshire is much different in that it comes down to independent voters:

Independent voters, or undeclared voters as they are called here, makeup 45 percent of the electorate, up from 28 percent in 1996, when thelegislature changed the law to simplify same-day registration.

So who would benefit and who would lose from these independent voters?  Adam Nagourney has an idea:

The shift has injected turmoil and uncertainty into thefirst-in-the-nation primaries, experts and campaign officials said.That creates an opportunity for Mr. Obama while posing complications tothe candidacies of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

It poses complications for McCain because any independent voters that choose to vote Republican will probably vote for him, as was the case in 2000.  However, that might not happen this year because so many independents are leaning Democratic.  As for Obama and Hillary, New Hampshire voters tend to pick the fresh, young face.  They did that in 1992, when they took a chance on a young Governor from Arkansas.

If New Hampshire independents vote overwhelmingly Democratic, then Obama might win.  If they split evenly, Hillary will get it.  Almost all of the New Hampshire polls, which show Hillary way ahead, are only conducted among New Hampshire Democrats, not independents as well.  Obama can only hope that New Hampshire independents show up or else he will have trouble pulling this one out.

Candidates that are electable in the general election are able to win independent votes.  If Obama has the support of independents, doesn't that make him the most electable?