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October 2007

2007.10.30

122 journalists have died in Iraq

For a war taking place in just one country, an unprecedented number of journalists have been slain.  This week, we can add one more journalist to the list:

An Iraqi editor was slain in Baghdad, the Committeeto Protect Journalists announced Monday, raising to at least 122 thenumber of journalists killed in Iraq since the war started in March2003.

Shehab Mohammad al-Hiti was a 27-year-old editor forthe fledgling weekly Baghdad al-Youm, which had been publishing foronly three weeks.

Of course, talking heads like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity would like us to believe that these journalists risk their lives just to promote the Democrats' anti-war talking points.

Confederate flag at Cheney's hunting club

Vice President Dick Cheney went hunting on Monday for eight hours just about 70 miles north of New York City.  What caused a commotion was not the fact that Cheney was hunting again.  Instead, it was of a photo taken by the New York Daily News:

Although a heavy police presence kept the media and curious localresidents at a distance, Cheney's visit did stir up a bit ofcontroversy when a New York Daily News photographer snapped a pictureof a small Confederate flag hanging inside a garage on the hunt clubproperty.

The photo was shown to New York City civil rights activist, the Rev. Al Sharpton ,who issued a statement demanding that the vice president "leaveimmediately, denounce the club and apologize for going to a club thatrepresents lynching, hate and murder to black people."

The photo is here.

Why the Iowa scheduling change helps Obama

Picphoto103007obama The crew over at the Swamp blog brought up a great point when recapping the MTV/MySpace forum last night.  Because the Iowa Caucus has been moved up to January 3rd, many registered college-aged voters will still be on winter break:

With as few as 50,000 votes potentially yielding a win in Iowa, thestate's tens of thousands of college students present a tantalizingtarget. Some will caucus near their schools, while others, at home onbreak, could have even greater influence by participating in smalltowns.

So how would college students participating in hometown caucuses have a greater influence?  Remember, a caucus is not the same thing as a primary.  Voters break up into groups based on their neighborhood, and discuss each candidate thoroughly.  This is where persuasive speaking skills come in handy.  If many college students, a majority of whom lean towards Obama, spread out all throughout the state, Obama's influence over all 99 counties will have increased significantly.  College students with strong opinions could convince a number of undecided voters at their table, and perhaps impact the entire race as a whole.

Having the caucuses moved to January 3rd enables more college students to participate, since few of them bother re-registering in the district where they go to school.  Remember, you cannot vote absentee in a caucus.  You must be there.  Besides, do you really think college students would bother driving all the way back home just to caucus on a Thursday during the school year?  Of course not.  But if it winter break, many of them will be back home anyway.  This schedule change only helps Obama's cause.

Hillary says she's ready for Obama/Edwards offensive

Amid rumors that Barack Obama will challenge Hillary Clinton on the issues of health care and lobbyist dependency, the Clinton team is preempting the imminent offensive:

“It’s unfortunate that Senators Obama and Edwards have decided torevive their campaigns by abandoning the politics of hope,” said herspokesman, Phil Singer, adding, “But Senator Clinton isn’t doinganything out of the ordinary to get ready for this debate.”

Abandoning the politics of hope?  As for Hillary, her campaign seems to be embracing the politics of calculation.

Blue Radar

I post each morning, here are some of the political stories thatmight not be worthy of their own posts, but are nonetheless newsworthy:

  • WHITE HOUSE Here are President Bush's recipients of the Medal of Freedom.
  • HEALTH A study finds that the AIDS virus first invaded the United States from Haiti.
  • TERRORISM In an interview with the BBC, the Saudi king says the UK is soft on terrorism.  "We have sent information to Great Britain before theterrorist attacks in Britain but unfortunately no action was taken," King Abdullah complained. "Andit may have been able to maybe avert the tragedy."  (Is he really one to be talking?)
  • SCANDAL The State Department, as part of their investigation, gave Blackwater guards immunity.  "The immunity deal has delayed a criminal inquiry into the Sept. 16killings and could undermine any effort to prosecute securitycontractors for their role in the incident that has infuriated theIraqi government," reported the AP and published in the USA Today.
  • 2008 ELECTION/SENATE Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO), who is also running for president but trails in the polls, will not run for Senate reelection in 2008, even if he does not win the Republican presidential nomination this winter.
  • 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Washington Post reports that New Hampshire might move its primary up to as early as December 4th, one full month ahead of the Iowa Caucus.  New Hampshire's Secretary of State will make his decision on November 2nd.
  • 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL As a huge hit on Youtube, an anti-Hillary video is taking aim at the former First Lady, and her connections to special interests.
  • 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Newsweek's Howard Fineman thinks that in tonight's debate, Obama needs to highlight specific distinctions between him and Hillary on policy matters, as opposed to just speaking in general terms.  "He needs to make specific, sharp distinctions on the issues, to theextent that they exist," Fineman writes. "The fact is, Clinton and Obama are not very farapart on most issues, but Obama needs to highlight the differences inclear language. Iran is a key one."
  • 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL On the eve of the big debate, John Edwards called Hillary Clinton a Washington insider.  "Senator Clinton'sroad to the middle class takes a major detour right through the deepcanyon of corporate lobbyists and the hidden bidding of K Street inWashington," he said. "And history tells us that when that bus stopsthere, it is the middle class that loses."
  • 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) has endorsed Mitt Romney for president.  This is significant because New Hampshire is a must-win state for Rudolph Giuliani.

If we left something out, it's because we either wrote about ityesterday or are scheduled to do so in an individual post later today. Otherwise, feel free to add any stories to the commentbox.

Blue Nightowl Clips

On the eve of the most important Democratic debate thus far, here are some of the top political clips making their rounds on the blogs at this hour:

  1. Does waterboarding = torture?
  2. Debating Iran.  Lively discussion.
  3. MySpace/MTV forum: Obama asked about gay marriage.  Part of Obama's efforts to reach out to younger people.  (lol Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post does a great job dressing hip.)
  4. New Obama ad addresses Social Security.
  5. Worst Person in the World for Monday night.
  6. John Edwards: just say no to health care lobbyists.

More clips tomorrow.  The Blue Radar, with all of the Tuesday headlines, will be posted just after 4 AM ET, just several hours from now.

Remember, we will have full coverage of the Democratic debate.  Join us for a live chat.  Yap away with fellow progressives as you watch the debate live at 9 PM ET/6 PM PT on MSNBC.

2007.10.29

IA-2008: Hillary barely leads Obama

Though the national polls show a Hillary landslide in the making, Iowa is still a very close race.  This new University of Iowa poll of 306 likely Democratic caucus-goers finds that Obama still could win the state.  As for Edwards, he is beginning to fall behind, despite the fact that over the weekend he became the first candidate in either party to visit all 99 counties.

Here are the numbers:

Likely Iowa Caucus Voters

Hillary Clinton - 29%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 20%
Bill Richardson - 7%
Joe Biden - 5%

/- 5.8%

If Hillary Clinton rolls through Iowa, nothing will stop her from winning the nomination -- mark my words.  With that said, Iowa is still very much up in the air.  Remember, with three weeks to go before the vote in 2004, John Kerry trailed in third place.  But as Kos points out, Clinton is much more disciplined than Howard Dean:

Clinton is no Howard Dean. In fact, she may be the most disciplinedpolitician I have ever seen. She's a machine, always on message,relentlessly perfect on everything -- appearance, message, and policy.It's that discipline that has allowed her to fool people into thinkingshe'd pull all of our troops out of Iraq and that her vote on Iranwasn't REALLY as horrible as it really was.

She won't make a mistake. She will not implode. She's too good tomake the obvious mistake, and even if she erred (she's human, so we canassume), her campaign wouldn't waste any time setting things straight.

It truly comes down to whether voters in Iowa will be fooled by machine-style politics, or whether they look beyond the inevitability factor and select a candidate based on substance.

In tomorrow's debate, Obama and Edwards will need to go on the offensive.  No more playing around.  If they are unable to be more disciplined in their message, we are looking at a Clinton primary landslide.

(We invite all of you to join us for the live chat during tomorrow's MSNBC debate, which begins at 9 PM ET/6 PM PT.)

Obama running from above

More than 350,000 donors.  Nearly $100 million raised.  National name recognition.  But for some reason, Obama just cannot get any traction in the polls.  One political science professor in Iowa thinks he knows why:

After watching Obama speak on his Des Moines campus recently, DrakeUniversity political science professor Dennis Goldford glimpsed onereason Obama is not faring as well as many think he should.

"There is a tremendous curiosity factor. He radiated a certain coolthat would be very attractive to college students and young people,"Goldford said. "For older voters, though" -- and half of caucusgoersare 55 or older -- "the music's great, but where are the lyrics? He'sbeen trying to fill that out somewhat, but for people inclined to go tothe caucus anyway, the lack of experience is significant."

Obama, said Goldford, has a cerebral approach that leaves some voterswanting more. While Clinton is running "from the center" and formerEdwards is running "from the left," he said, Obama is "running fromabove."

"He is trying to run against the process and politics as usual itself,"Goldford added. "The last person to do that successfully was PresidentBill Bradley in 2000." (Rimshot, please.)

As someone that has followed this campaign play out, Barack Obama has bogged down by consultants.  He no longer has the confident, free-flowing style that made him famous during the 2004 Democratic Convention.  He comes off as too calculated, cautious and serious.  He has a few weeks left to come out of his shell, otherwise we will have crossed the point of no return and Hillary or Edwards will win the nomination.

If Democrats vote on issues, Edwards wins

For a campaign that trails in the polls, John Edwards is generating a lot of substance -- even more than all the other candidates.  When you look at what Edwards is proposing, he is definitely the candidate most likely to help the poor, middle class and college students.

Edwards sat down with the Christian Science Monitor to discuss some of the proposals.  This is impressive:

John Edwards says if he's elected president, he'll institute a NewDeal-like suite of programs to fight poverty and stem growing wealthdisparity. To do it, he said, he'll ask many Americans to makesacrifices, like paying higher taxes.

Edwards, a former Democratic senator from North Carolina, saysthe federal government should underwrite universal pre-kindergarten,create matching savings accounts for low-income people, mandate aminimum wage of $9.50 and provide a million new Section 8 housingvouchers for the poor. He also pledged to start a government-fundedpublic higher education program called "College for Everyone."

"It is central to what I want to do as president to dosomething about economic inequality. I do not believe it is okay forthe United States of America to have 37 million people living inpoverty," he said in a meeting with Monitor reporters and editors thisweek. "And I think we need, desperately need, a president who will saythat to America and call on Americans to show their character."

Republicans like to talk a lot about family values.  These proposals have 'family' written all over them.  If voters vote on issues, Edwards wins.

Spreading democracy, or exporting K-Street?

Until now, few among the traditional press have mustered up the courage to ask what we are truly exporting abroad?  Is it genuine democracy?  Or is it someone's sick and twisted version of what democracy means to them?

One thing is for sure: if Robert Blackwill has his way, Baghdad will be the new K-Street:

In the spring of 2004, Robert D. Blackwill, then the influential Iraq director on the National Security Council, pushed hard to make Ayad Allawi , a tough, secular Shiite with close ties to the Central Intelligence Agency , the interim prime minister of Iraq.

Mr. Blackwill’s efforts worked. For the next 10 months, until Mr.Allawi’s party lost in the Iraqi elections, he was the first primeminister of the newly sovereign nation — America’s man in Baghdad.

Now,a little more than three years later, Mr. Blackwill is back in the samebusiness: pushing hard to make Mr. Allawi prime minister of Iraq again.But this time, Mr. Blackwill’s powerful lobbying firm, Barbour Griffith& Rogers, is receiving $300,000 from Mr. Allawi for his work.

It took Washington 218 years before it was completely taken over by lobbyists.  Thanks to Blackwill, if Allawi gets elected, the "democracy" in Baghdad will take less than three.

There is a clear difference between representative democracy and cronyism.

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