Why the Iowa scheduling change helps Obama

The crew over at the Swamp blog brought up a great point when recapping the MTV/MySpace forum last night.  Because the Iowa Caucus has been moved up to January 3rd, many registered college-aged voters will still be on winter break:

With as few as 50,000 votes potentially yielding a win in Iowa, thestate's tens of thousands of college students present a tantalizingtarget. Some will caucus near their schools, while others, at home onbreak, could have even greater influence by participating in smalltowns.

So how would college students participating in hometown caucuses have a greater influence?  Remember, a caucus is not the same thing as a primary.  Voters break up into groups based on their neighborhood, and discuss each candidate thoroughly.  This is where persuasive speaking skills come in handy.  If many college students, a majority of whom lean towards Obama, spread out all throughout the state, Obama's influence over all 99 counties will have increased significantly.  College students with strong opinions could convince a number of undecided voters at their table, and perhaps impact the entire race as a whole.

Having the caucuses moved to January 3rd enables more college students to participate, since few of them bother re-registering in the district where they go to school.  Remember, you cannot vote absentee in a caucus.  You must be there.  Besides, do you really think college students would bother driving all the way back home just to caucus on a Thursday during the school year?  Of course not.  But if it winter break, many of them will be back home anyway.  This schedule change only helps Obama's cause.