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2007.11.07

Dodd moving up?

According to the site Wonkosphere, which has successfully predicted everything poll-related thus far this election cycle, says that both Barack Obama and Chris Dodd will move up in the polls.  Wonkosphere tracks internet buzz from the 2008 race on a number of blogs.  They measure the change in buzz, and use that to determine which way each candidate will likely head in the coming month.

So let's look into the crystal ball for November:

"Total buzz share doesn't tell the whole picture though," saidWonkosphere's Kevin Dooley. "We have found that it's not the absoluteamount of buzz share that matters, but rather the change in buzz sharewhich is predictive of movement in the national poll numbers. So whileRon Paul won October, he was at the same level of buzz share inSeptember, so we don't expect his national poll numbers to move.Conversely, Giuliani and Romney both gained buzz share in October, sowe expect them to gain in polls, almost exclusively at the expense ofFred Thompson."

Amongst liberal bloggers, Hillary Clinton (21%) won buzz share inOctober, followed by Barack Obama (16%), John Edwards (13%), Joe Biden(6%), and Chris Dodd (5%). Comparing these results to September,Wonkosphere predicts that Obama will gain ground on Clinton, Edwardswill lose some ground, and Chris Dodd will begin to look like thefront-runner for viable "fourth choice".

A pretty interesting site.

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