IA-2008: Iowa race in a statistical three-way tie

For Hillary, Edwards and Obama, Iowa is anybody's race to win.  A new Zogby poll shows that each of them are in contention:

Iowa Democrats (likely caucus-goers)

Hillary Clinton - 28%
Barack Obama - 25%
John Edwards - 21%

Now to the next part -- and this is where is gets mighty interesting.  According to caucus rules, if after a precinct votes a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, all the individuals who voted for that candidate must either forfeit their vote or support a candidate above the 15% threshold.

At the moment, it seems like in almost every precinct only Hillary, Obama and Edwards will be above the 15% threshold.  So it all comes down to which candidate Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich supporters will switch their votes to.  Here are the results:

                                                          

	First Choice Only	Including Second Choices of Those Who First   Backed Unviables
Clinton	28%	30%
Obama	25%	29%
Edwards	21%	27%
Not Sure	12%	15%

In other words, we are all tied up in Iowa.  Just to note, according to Zogby, John Edwards was able to make up the most ground because most Biden and Richardson supporters jumped to his side.

Comments

[George]

Awesome information, Todd. And very good news as well. If Iowa can pull this off for non-Hillary, I'll put Iowa right up there with Virginia in my favorite 'change the game' state.

[michael]

colbert gravel kucinich paul nader [conyers?] united for truth elicit fear smear blacklist.

honesty compassion intelligence guts...

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Yes, Virginia was sure something in 2006. Speaking of Virginia, from what I'm hearing, Jim Webb might be brought on by Hillary, Barack or Edwards as a VP. Under Hillary though, he would have a much more limited role. LOL Even I wouldn't want to be Hillary's VP. You wouldn't have influence on anything.