Iowa contest will hinge on an important rule

When all the Biden, Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd, and Richardson supporters discover that their candidates don't meet the 15% viability rule, they will need to either choose another candidate or walk out of the caucus location.  So for Obama, Hillary and Edwards, being the second choice of those supporters is critical.

This caucus rule will likely decide the outcome:

The key is a Democratic rule that candidates need the backing of atleast 15 percent of people at a caucus meeting for that support tocount. If a candidate doesn't achieve the 15 percent viability rule,the candidate's supporters can switch to their second choice or call itquits.

Biden and Richardson supporters will likely make the most impact.  Based on my own subjective findings, Biden's stances are a lot closer to where Clinton is on many issues.  Furthermore, they are both Washington establishment candidates.  Richardson, on the other hand, is staunchly anti-war, and his supporters will lean towards Obama and Edwards.  As for Kucinich and Gravel supporters, Edwards will probably be their guy.  Dodd's supporters could go anywhere.

This caucus rule means that no Iowa poll is truly meaningful unless it asks respondents for their second pick.

Comments

[jason]

Kucinich supporters to Edwards?! HAHA... You've got to be kidding. Obama gets those for sure...

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Not too sure, especially the way Kucinich has been attacking Obama. But it is for sure that Obama would be more likely to get them than Hillary.

[Expat Teacher]

Todd,

What you missed is that it is 15% of voters within each caucus meeting. Therefore, Obama's efforts to reach out to "non-traditional voters" and students is very risky. The chances of students being in their correct polling places on January 3rd and/or "non-traditional voters" turning out at 6 p.m. for a several hour event on a cold, cold night is very risky.

It is certainly possible that Obama voters won't make the 15% threshold and then have to support other candidates. The only polls that are of any value are those asking "likely caucus goers" and then to know their 2nd choice.

Likewise, Richardson's campaign is following Edwards' 2004 blueprint to win in lighter attended rural districts, which the Democratic Party of Iowa has given a slightly higher weight than the urban caucuses.

Another good indicator of attendance is union membership. Whichever candidate lands union endorsements is more likely to turn out voters to their caucuses and win that precinct.

Obama has done very poorly in that area. I believe he will have a hard time reaching the 15% threshold in many of the caucus locations and it may be his supporters' 2nd choice that decide who wins.

[kucinich nader gravel paul]

Four, united for truth, cause: fear, smear, & media blackout.