NH-2008: Why Hillary is falling in New Hampshire
A , released over the weekend, shows that Hillary's 21-point lead over Barack Obama has quickly fallen by 10 points since last month. So what is happening? Obama has successfully targeted male voters 45-years and older, who have a proven history of showing up to vote on primary day:
Although Hillary Clinton has seen a decline insupport among many groups within New Hampshire’s likely Democratic Primaryelectorate, one of the biggest changes has been among men forty-five years ofage and older. Last month, she led bothBarack Obama and John Edwards by 20 percentage points among this group. It is now a three-way contest.
Also, Obama is now winning among first-time voters.
In a turnabout from last month’s poll, Obamanow leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among first time voters. He trailed Clinton by 19 percentage pointsamong first time voters in the earlier poll. Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary voters has never beforevoted in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary.
It's a whole new ballgame.
(Note: In a few previous posts, I wrote that the Democratic debate this week is on Wednesday. It is actually on Thursday.)
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