NH-2008: Why Hillary will root for Ron Paul

Iowa is a very important state because it will determine whether Hillary Clinton runs away with the nomination.  If Obama or Edwards win, the race will move to New Hampshire, where independent voters make up 45% of the electorate.  These independents will need to make a decision: Democratic ballot or Republican ballot?  They can only pick one.

Political wisdom suggests that if Obama or Edwards win Iowa (especially in Obama's case), a flood of New Hampshire independents will vote in the Democratic contest because they will want to see Hillary go down.  If McCain loses big in Iowa, even more registered New Hampshire independents will want to vote in the Democratic race, fearing that McCain is done and there is no point in filling out a Republican ballot.

This is all good news for Obama and Edwards.  But there is one variable they are leaving out: the Ron Paul factor.

Earlier this week, Ron Paul raked in $4.3 million in just 24 hours.  If this keeps up, he will be able to increase his campaign resources in early states, including Iowa.  If Paul finishes as high as third in Iowa, he will become the media darling overnight, and be labeled as the independent maverick Republican (sound familiar?).  Obama or Edwards, should they win Iowa, could count on significantly less independents crossing over to help beat Hillary in New Hampshire.  Plus, Ron Paul is basing his campaign in New Hampshire more than anywhere else.  He will attract a lot of independents -- keeping them from voting for Hillary's number one competitor.

Whether Obama or Edwards put up a fight in New Hampshire will depend on the attractiveness of Ron Paul to independent voters.

Comments

[NH]

Why NH is going down the tubes....errr...ok different subject.

Democrats in Iowa are flocking to Ron Paul and say if he's the one, they will vote for him instead of her...

But of course since there isn't a dime's worth of difference in the parties, they will hand us Hillary because it won't matter to them whether it's Hillary or Rudy because they are one and the same. (Both liberal liars)

[Robert]

Todd great points made. Ron Paul is only a dark horse because the media isn't covering him. This is not Gravel. This is a real canidate who has grassroot support across the nation. Would he be able to carry a whole state. I wonder what will happen if he does atleast places in Iowa or NH. He has done a lot with little money. While i doubt much of of what he wants to be done could not be done. He could make changes that will have a profound effect on all of us. I'm still and edwards guy but Ron Paul could stir the pot

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Definitely right about that: Paul is not Gravel. lol Funny how Gravel was portrayed on SNL last Saturday, in a straight jacket.