The Blue State

Hillary launches Obama smear site

Part of Hillary's last-ditch effort to hurt Obama's chances in Iowa.  Everyone knows that if Obama loses Iowa, he might never be able to recover.  ABC News:

ABC News has learned that the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.,has registered the names of two Web sites with the express goal ofattacking her chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.

It's the first time this election cycle a presidential campaignhas launched a Web site with the express purpose of of launchingserious criticisms on a rival.

Votingpresent.com and Votingpresent.org are domains hosted by the sameIP address as official Clinton Web sites, such TheHillaryIKnow.com,which was launched with much fanfare this week.

The Clinton campaign intends to use these new Web sites to paint Obama as cowardly.

Both parties are guilty of running dirty campaigns this election cycle.  But portraying an opponent as cowardly?  That's pretty personal.

Daily Iowa Insider: McCain gets in Obama's way

This is really not the news that Barack Obama fans need.  John McCain is climbing in the polls, even in Iowa where he isn't liked by mainstream Republicans.  If he finishes third or a surprising second, independent voters in New Hampshire will likely choose to vote in the Republican contest instead of selecting a Democratic ballot.  Bad news for Obama.  The Illinois Senator needs the support of independent voters in New Hampshire in order to beat Hillary, who is still very strong in that state among rank and file Democrats.

So what does this have to do with Iowa?  Well, quite simply, it gives Democrats an even greater incentive to care what happens in the Republican race there, as it will affect the next voting state, which casts its ballots just five days later.  Anti-Hillary Democrats ought to hope that McCain finishes as poorly as possible in Iowa.  An ideal Republican finish in Iowa would consist of Huckabee, Romney and Thompson/Giuliani in the top-three.  The latest GOP Iowa poll shows a recent McCain surge.

American Research Group:

IOWA REPUBLICANS
Mike Huckabee - 28%
John McCain - 20%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Rudolph Giuliani - 13%

In New Hampshire, at the moment, McCain and Romney are tied.

Daily Iowa Insider: Dodd out?

Could Chris Dodd be thinking of dropping out of the race?  If he does, he may thank those that are urging him to do it.  In fact, there are rumblings in Washington that Chris Dodd, who has generated momentum with his netroots following, may challenge Harry Reid for his Senate Majority Leader spot:

As the political season reaches its Iowa caucus climax, momentum isbuilding for Sen. Chris Dodd to parlay his presidential campaign into abid to challenge Sen. Harry Reid, D-NV, for Majority Leader.

Almost all of the support for this effort now comes from thenetroots, much of which favors such a move. But talk of Dodd making arun at the post has slowly crept into the corners of Capitol Hill aswell. And in light of the Connecticut Democrat's successful filibuster threatthis week over granting immunity to telecommunications firms thatconducted warrantless surveillance, some in the progressive communitysee the framework for a potential shakeup.

Lastly, with Hillary's lead evaporating in California, many are wondering whether Bill Clinton's latest television attack on Barack Obama was out of mere desperation.

It's January 19th.  The Iowa Caucus, the one we have all been waiting for, is two weeks from tomorrow.

Daily Iowa Insider: Affecting the outcome

It turns out that television networks could impact the vote totals in Iowa.  From Politico via Political Wire:

"Instead of waiting for actual votes to be counted on the night of theJan. 3 Iowa caucus, a consortium of the major TV networks and TheAssociated Press will conduct an entrance poll to measure how peoplesay they will vote," The Politico reports.

"Those results will be broadcast long before the official vote is announced and, in some cases, before the voting is finished."

Hopefully no caucus locations have televisions running at the time.  Otherwise, if totals show Hillary Clinton in the lead, will that let some wind out of the balloon for Obama-leaning supporters.

IA-08: Latest polling blast

Here are two new polls.

Research 2000:

Barack Obama - 33%
Hillary Clinton - 24%
John Edwards - 24%
Bill Richardson - 9%

Hotline:

Hillary Clinton - 27%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 22%
Bill Richardson - 8%

With still plenty of undecided voters remaining.

Daily Iowa Insider: Where we stand

After a brief trip up to Canada for the weekend to meet with the political science department at a graduate school, I am back and ready for the home stretch run that leads to the January 3rd Iowa Caucus.  A lot will be riding on that contest.  If Hillary wins, the momentum pushing her into New Hampshire as the odds-on inevitable nominee might be too overwhelming for Obama or Edwards to stop.  Of course, if Edwards wins Iowa, which could end up happening, Hillary might be just as excited.  Just as long as Obama finishes lower than first place in Iowa, she will be optimistic heading into New Hampshire and beyond.

As for Edwards, he actually could win Iowa.  Remember, this is not a primary.  It's not one person one vote.  Instead, each precinct, regardless of population, will receive the exact same amount of delegates.  Edwards, who has visited all 99 counties, has a respectable shot at pulling off the upset.  He has visited some of the most rural parts of Iowa, which have the exact same weight in terms of votes as precincts in Des Moines.  Anything can happen.

Over the last few days, I have grown less optimistic about Barack Obama's chances in Iowa.  Yes, I still consider him the slight favorite to win.  But I am less optimistic because I am getting a Howard Dean vibe from his campaign.  Like Dean, Obama is over-relying on younger voters, many of which never caucused before, and could even decide not to show up on the cold, wintery January 3rd evening.  Many of the college students will be back in their home towns, some in other states, and therefore would be unable to attend.  If the caucus were on the week of January 14th, therefore, I would say Obama would win by at least five percentage points.  But now that it has been moved up, the loyalists, especially those in rural counties, might give the advantage to Edwards.

It's still a toss-up.  The media is trying to make this a two-way race between Hillary and Obama.  As far as Iowa concerned, it isn't.  There are three contenders, all with an almost equal shot of winning.  These are crucial days between now and December 23rd, and then from the 27th leading up to the 3rd.  You can bet that there will be no Christmas for any candidate, as they try to grab the very last undecided Iowa voters and get them to commit to caucus.

NH-08: Obama ahead of Clinton

Barack Obama is surging at the perfect time, and there is nothing Hillary can do about it.  If she attacks him, there will be a backlash in the polls.  The only way she can do it is through "independent" political action committees.  So as Obama has remained positive, he is surging in New Hampshire, a state where he trailed by about 20 points a few weeks ago:

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATS
(Likely primary voters)
Barack Obama - 32%
Hillary Clinton - 31%
John Edwards - 18%
Bill Richardson - 8%

Of course, remember that New Hampshire will be greatly impacted by whatever happens in Iowa.  If Hillary can squeak out a win in Iowa, Obama's support could collapse in New Hampshire.

Blue Radar

As I post each morning, here are some of the political stories thatmight not be worthy of their own posts, but are nonetheless newsworthy:

• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The final Democratic debate before the Iowa Caucus is today at 2 PM ET.  C-Span will cover it.  You can also watch it live on Cspan.com.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Hillary Clinton's campaign is unraveling a bit on the inside.  Clinton's top political aide is under fire for being too poll-driven.  "Clinton campaign insiders are increasingly questioning the cautious,poll-driven approach taken by Mark Penn, Sen. Hillary Clinton's toppolitical aide," writes Newsday.  (What a surprise.)
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Clinton campaign is now citing Barack Obama's previous drug use as a concern that he is not fit to be president.  "It'll be, 'When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'" asked Bill Shaheen, the national co-chair of Clinton's campaign.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL New Hampshire Democrats (Suffolk): Clinton - 33%, Obama - 26%, Edwards - 15%, Richardson - 5%.

If we left something out, it's because we either wrote about ityesterday or are scheduled to do so in an individual post later today. Otherwise, feel free to add any stories to the commentbox.

Blue Nightowl Clips

As we post in the middle of each night, here are some of the popular political clips making their rounds on the blogs at this hour:

1. Olbermann puts a wrap on the GOP debate.
2. Alan Keyes blows up at Des Moines Register debate moderator.
3. CNN News coverage: A dead heat.
4. Hearing on energy price manipulation.

More clips tomorrow.

Afternoon Blue Radar

Yes, we are a bit late on this today.  Nonetheless, here is some of the political buzz of the Wednesday news day:

• POLL Bush approval rating at 33%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Republican debate in Iowa today could have a seismic impact on the race for president.  60% of all likely Republican caucus-goers are undecided.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The CBS News Democratic debate that was scheduled for today was canceled last week due to the writers strike in Los Angeles.  The Democrats, however, will debate tomorrow.  This is their last debate before the Iowa Caucus.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Hillary Clinton says that after 1992, when her husband didn't even campaign in Iowa, this state is relatively uncharted territory for her.  "I always thought that Iowa would be a challenge, and I'm personallyreally pleased with how far I've come, never having done this withBill," the former First Lady and current presidential candidate said.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL New Hampshire Democrats (Rasmussen): Obama - 31%, Clinton - 28%, Edwards - 17%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Iowa Democrats (Rasmussen): Clinton - 29%, Obama - 26%, Edwards - 22%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL New Hampshire Democrats (CNN): Clinton - 31%, Obama - 30%, Edwards - 16%, Richardson - 7%.

If we left something out, it's because we either wrote about ityesterday or are scheduled to do so in an individual post later today. Otherwise, feel free to add any stories to the commentbox.