Confident about Obama

Going into this 8 PM ET poll closure in New Hampshire, I am more confident than ever about Barack Obama.  On Thursday of last week, I was quite skeptical, and thought maybe Edwards might pick up enough votes from Kucinich, Dodd, Richardson and Biden supporters in order to finish on top.  Now, four days removed from the media bounce that followed the Iowa Caucus, Obama is way ahead in New Hampshire.  He will win today.  The Illinois Senator may even hit the 40% range, which is bad news for John McCain because many of those votes will come from independents that chose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican contest.

The only thing I worry about in the long-term is that the media might be over-hyping Obama, which in American pop culture could lead to a rapid decline sometime in the near future.  When a pop figure like Obama is in the spotlight, the media then looks for a flaw that they can jump on and make a story out of.  After New Hampshire, Obama needs to be particularly careful -- especially during interviews and off the record conversations.  Keep small talk to a minimum.  The Hillary campaign is drooling to find something on him, and they can't, other than the mysterious complaint that if you aren't in Washington your whole life that somehow disqualifies you from being president.

In summary, Obama will win tonight.  But in the days and weeks ahead, he still has three eager opponents and the media that will soon ratchet up the pressure.  This race to the nomination is not over -- not at all!

Comments

[George]

I think he'll easily get 40% and easily win by double figures.

I'm going to see him speak in Jersey City tomorrow! Im taking the day off!