NEVADA CAUCUS COVERAGE

I'll be at work until 7:30 PM ET, when we will probably know who the winner is.  Nonetheless, we are using this post as the thread to discuss the results as they happen.  Here is the schedule for this afternoon:

• Begin at 11:30 am PT (2:30 pm ET).
• Preference groups form at 12 pm PT (3:00 pm ET)
• Second alignment begins at 12:15 pm PT (3:15 pm ET)
• Results start coming into Nevada Democratic Party at 2 pm PT (5 pm ET).

The GOP Nevada Caucus and South Carolina primary are today as well.

Comments

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Let me just start this thread off by responding to what George wrote as a comment for another post yesterday. Obama may have sounded on his game -- charismatically speaking. But he can do way better. Why is he not talking about the economy more? People are going to vote for a candidate that gives them the best chance of increasing their livelihood. Seriously, the economy is terrible. It will continue to get bad as the year goes on.

It's so bad that the big companies hurt by the housing market crash are borrowing from the SAudis. That is SERIOUS. Also, Obama needs to say that it's the people in Washington that got us into this mess of high debt (which kills our currency) and a lack of emphasis on the middle class. And it will take an outsider like him to get the job done.

[George]

Todd,
Totally agree. Obama needs to do more of the "i feel your pain" stuff."

So there is a re-alignment for supporters of candidates not getting 15% right? just like in iowa. This bodes really well for Obama just like it did in iowa. do i understand this correctly?

[Matthias]

these are the rules:

Caucuses which elect one (1) delegate - No groups may form, the delegate must be elected by the whole caucus

Caucuses which elect two (2) delegates - Viable groups must contain 25% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .25)

Caucuses which elect three (3) delegates - Viable groups must contain 1/6th of attendees (# eligible attendees, divided by 6)
Caucuses which elect four (4) or more delegates - Viable groups must contain 15% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .15)

More Info Available at http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=30

[Justin]

Hey! I just said that!

[George]

so the edwards decline seems to favor obama here. But this may be a myth because in NH all the Edwards support seemed to line up with Clinton in the end.

I'm not very convinced that a huge majority of Edwards people pick Obama 2nd but hopefully i am wrong.

[Matthias]

yes and i just copyed it... was there a copyright? In this case i am sorry ;-)

[George]

with .17% reporting, Obama has 100% of the vote!!!!!!!!!!!!

i call this race for Obama!

[George]

and down goes teh nevada results site. great job. it's 2008 - get a web site that works.

[granny]

Are we listening to what Republican voters (Nevada, S.C) are saying: that is what is actually coming out of their mouths? These people do not hate George Bush. They do not think our country is in a shambles, or needs fixing...It's working for them.

Are we noting that the cuacus/primary Democrats are demonstrating the same indecision, and uneasiness over who they really want that the Republicans are. Not getting the same press, but clearly there's no groundswell.

I guess I won't restate my thoughts on the difference between pulling a lever or marking an X in the box in a primary, and voting in a booth at the general election. But I think we're drowning in our focus on processes, and giving too little time and thought to who these candidates really are & how we can achieve electing a decent president.

Our guest writer is making a real contribution here, to the dialog that's going to count.

[granny]

Are we listening to what Republican voters (Nevada, S.C) are saying: that is what is actually coming out of their mouths? These people do not hate George Bush. They do not think our country is in a shambles, or needs fixing...It's working for them.

Are we noting that the cuacus/primary Democrats are demonstrating the same indecision, and uneasiness over who they really want that the Republicans are. Not getting the same press, but clearly there's no groundswell.

I guess I won't restate my thoughts on the difference between pulling a lever or marking an X in the box in a primary, and voting in a booth at the general election. But I think we're drowning in our focus on processes, and giving too little time and thought to who these candidates really are & how we can achieve electing a decent president.

Our guest writer is making a real contribution here, to the dialog that's going to count.

[granny]

Sorry about that techno burp. I'm not shouting. Didn't need to say it twice (or didn't intend to anyway)

[Jon]

Hello everyone. I just got back from my caucus site.

Good news from the site I was at... Obama won!

97 Obama
73 Clinton
Unknown Uncommitied

Edwards did not reach relevancy at my site.
This was a huge turn out compared to 2004 where I only remember about 2 dozen people.

[Jon]

I sent that post before I was ready. Just another note on the uncommitted...they had a chance to break for someone or remain uncommitted. there were no more than 10 people who didn't fall into the Obama or Clinton camps.

When the uncommitted were offered a chance to choose from Hillary or Obama our side got into a chanting match with the Hillary camp.
Not only did we have more people our people were generally louder.

That actually seemed to work against us as about 4 uncommitted people went to Hillary. I don't know if they were annoyed or intimidated by the Obama side. Honestly I wanted to get our side to make a speech about why they should get them to come to our side but they were too loud and I'm a whisperer even when I yell so I had no chance to get the Obama people to stop chanting so we could make an appeal that someone could think about. Obama may have picked up some uncommitted voters but it is hard to tell, maybe 1 or 2. Point is we carried the vote in my precinct.

I can only hope the rest of my state does the same.

[Matthias]

I think 50-45 is not so bad, especially the 4% for Edwards are good news for Obama

[demostrat]

it's done folks.. Hilary was just declared the winner by both MSNBC and CNN. This my friends seems to be the beginning of the end.............for Obama.

[Jon]

There is still SC, if he loses that and former Edwards voters begin to flock to a winning Hillary, then I'd be ready to throw in the towel.

I know we would have wanted a win in Nevada but as I said its best not to get your hopes up with Nevada when it comes to progressive politics.

Nevada is a very traditional state and change frightens the pants of most people here. With that being said I think Obama did as well as anyone touting change can in Nevada's current political climate.

So in short its not over yet but this definitely looks like the reforging Hillary's armor of inevitability .

[Justin]

Well put Jon.

[George]

Demostrat - if you think this is the beginning of the end you are lost. a month ago, Nevada was a pipe dream for Obama. He was down 30 points. This is nothing spectacular for Clinton. If she lost Nevada it would have been pathetic based on her DLC support there.

If Clinton wins SC, then you can talk.

[Matthias]

Well put George.

[demostrat]

Good point George... Let's all hold our breathe till SC.

[casey b]

According to the AP Obama won in the number of delegates by 1

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Hey everyone! I like the lively discussion! Well, Obama didn't win. He did win more delegates though. Also, the popular vote in Nevada has not been counted yet, since it's not a caucus. The actual vote totals will be a love closer. Gonna write a new post about SC

[George]

If you consider these stats on Nevada, Obama did AMAZINGLY well:

59% of voters were female
68% of voters were 45 and older
15% of voters were black

Come on, how's he supposed to compete with those stats. Hopefully this trend doesnt continue.

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Great point, George. I had no idea that the age demographics were tilted that far to one side. I thought Nevada was a lot younger, due to the recent population influx as Vegas boomed in the 90s.

[Matthias]

Perhaps the most important news of the Iowa-Caucus is Edwards result: just 4%!
his results so far: Iowa - 30%
NH - 17%
NV - 4%
If Edwards dropps out of the race before 2/5 and backs Obama, Obama will get nominated, I predict.