Obama playing catch-up in Nevada

Don't get me wrong: the race in Nevada is close.  But almost every poll released in the last two days gives Hillary Clinton a slight lead.  Most of her support, surprisingly, comes from Las Vegas.  Clinton's affect on single women is alive and real, despite Obama's stardom among both unions and young voters.  It seems that as Obama has spent time bringing in new endorsements, Hillary has been out on the campaign trail appealing directly to voters -- almost as if the two traded strategies, since it was Obama in the past that engaged directly.

This Hillary strategy isn't a new one.  She tried it in 2000 and 2006 in upstate New York, where so many pundits predicted that Republicans in that area would never vote for her.  She went out and engaged with them directly and got their support.  Now, after that Iowa wakeup call, she is going back to that strategy, and it is working.

Why isn't Obama doing the same?  It beats me.  Maybe he thinks that bringing some of the Washington establishment onto his side will help him later on down the road.  But in the meantime, he is losing an opportunity in Nevada.  One new poll has her leading Obama by five, and in another poll by nine.  Yes, Obama sure does have South Carolina to fall back on.  But Obama supporters, like myself, are biting their nails because the current Nevada strategy of remaining distant to voters isn't working.  He needs more publicity.  With one day to go, time may be running out in Nevada.

Comments

[demostrat]

Todd, sadly I agree with this post. It all seems surreal. It's as if the results in NH really gutted him to the point of not keeping his stride....... My fingers are crossed for a big win tomorrow.

[Jon]

I don't like to talk about it but Nevada is my home. There are many reasons to be concerned about Nevada but I won't go too deep into that now.

I will say that this state has a lot of people who will consistently vote against their best interests. People here often break for the establishment candidate or the one with highest name recognition. They also fall for a lot of tough talk.

I'm a pessimist so I'm not expecting much but if any other Obama leaning Nevadans are reading this, go ahead and caucus, we need every person we can get.

I was slightly encouraged on the 11th when Obama appeared at Del Sol High School in Las Vegas. The fire marshal stopped letting people into the gym at 2500 and there were still many left outside. Obama did come out and speak to us though. That was a good move too because a lot of people stood out in the cold with lines that wrapped the parking lot and out to a sidewalk for a very long stretch.

Obama's outdoor speech was about 1/4 as inspiring as normal because in was impromptu and he said we basically surprised his campaign in Nevada by having such a large crowd. He did go on to give a better speech for the people inside. One exciting thing I saw was a nice mix of people. Old, Young, Black, White, Asian, Latino etc. That usually doesn't happen here, I was shocked to the point of thinking his uniting message might just catch on and work IF he can get elected.

That being said Hillary definitely has people who will vote for her here. Obama will need everyone he can get.

As for Edwards I think he should drop out. He has support here but even if he wins here it isn't likely that he'll catch on elsewhere. The media campaign about his hair and his house and sadly marginalized him. Second I would be floored if Nevada picked him anyway, he isn't "hot stuff" like Clinton or Obama.

Besides Nevada has been a red state as of late and he is more populist than a lot of people here would be willing to vote for. If he sticks around that only helps Clinton, sorry Edwards voters just look at the polls. I like the guy but he just doesn't have people behind him nationally. I'm a fan of the Obama/Edwards ticket. Even though it has a few problems I think it could win as long as Bloomberg doesn't enter the race as an Independent.

Finally I'll say that I'm very happy that the court upheld the caucus rules for the super sites on the strip meaning that culinary union workers will have a chance to vote. Had that decision been reversed Obama wouldn't have had a chance here in my opinion. Anyway I will be at the caucus for Obama tomorrow.

[matthias]

I think the current poll-numbers about nevada are not very accurat. Even the Pollsters say that there are no examples for a panel about nevada. Nevertheless the recent polls are not very positive...

But don´t forget the caucus-rules in nevada, justin posted some days ago (http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=30)

The current numbers say Edwards is at about 12-14%, this means, Obama would get a little boost by him. (if I understood the rules)

[George]

Todd is right - the Obama campaign is distant and preachy while Clinton is personable now.

Nevada's delegates are meaningless but the result may indicate that the Obama campaign is going about things the wrong way.

Obama needs to show that he can stand up and answer tough questions -- and he can. I've seen him do it. He did this in Iowa.

Todd,
Do you know what happens to Edwards delegates if he drops out? Can he give them to someone else? If not, how can anyone get a majority of the delegate b/c Edwards will definitely hold a decent % of them

[jeffrey]

at the msnbc and cnn poll in nevada, obama was in the lead, but that was a week ago. I really hope the culinary endoresement he got will help him win.

[Peter]

I dont know what you are all watching but Obama is drawing huge crowds with overflow rooms every day. John Kerry is out there canvassing with supporters. Michelle Obama is out there.

[George]

i saw obama speak on cspan last nite live. he was on his game. great speech. he's a legend. I think he'll do some damage in Nevada. with the sparse turnout expected, all you gotta do is have the best organization.