The Blue State

Obama playing catch-up in Nevada

Don't get me wrong: the race in Nevada is close.  But almost every poll released in the last two days gives Hillary Clinton a slight lead.  Most of her support, surprisingly, comes from Las Vegas.  Clinton's affect on single women is alive and real, despite Obama's stardom among both unions and young voters.  It seems that as Obama has spent time bringing in new endorsements, Hillary has been out on the campaign trail appealing directly to voters -- almost as if the two traded strategies, since it was Obama in the past that engaged directly.

This Hillary strategy isn't a new one.  She tried it in 2000 and 2006 in upstate New York, where so many pundits predicted that Republicans in that area would never vote for her.  She went out and engaged with them directly and got their support.  Now, after that Iowa wakeup call, she is going back to that strategy, and it is working.

Why isn't Obama doing the same?  It beats me.  Maybe he thinks that bringing some of the Washington establishment onto his side will help him later on down the road.  But in the meantime, he is losing an opportunity in Nevada.  One new poll has her leading Obama by five, and in another poll by nine.  Yes, Obama sure does have South Carolina to fall back on.  But Obama supporters, like myself, are biting their nails because the current Nevada strategy of remaining distant to voters isn't working.  He needs more publicity.  With one day to go, time may be running out in Nevada.

The latest Obama smear

This has been circulating throughout Israel and among the Jewish community in Florida:

Illinois Senator and Democraticpresidential candidate Barack Obama has been targeted in a recent smearcampaign which claims that he is a fundamentalist Muslim working foral-Qaeda in an effort to topple the US government.

An inflammatory mass e-mail that is circulating in the United States and Israel lays out the anonymous author's version of Obama's background.

One of the target audiences in thecampaign is clearly the American Jewish community because the e-mailhas also been sent out in Hebrew.

The writer attempts to portray Obama as an al-Qaeda stooge rhetorically asking: "So who is Barack Obama?"

He answers that, Obama's stepfather, Lolo Soetoro, introduced him toIslam by registering him at a Wahhabi Muslim school or madrassa inJakarta, Indonesia.

If Obama makes it to the general election, this is what will be headed his way.  This time, I think the country is much more mature and would dismiss this kind of thing.

 

DEBATE COVERAGE

This is your place for complete debate coverage.  We will continue to update this post throughout the debate with analysis.

• 10:29: This just about does it.  Even if the debate does go overtime, I'm going to check out because I need some sleep before work tomorrow.  By the way, Edwards slammed Clinton for raising more money from the energy industry than any other candidate.  Sweet!  G-nite all!
• 10:28: This debate is pretty much over.  There was a slight verbal exchange over nuclear energy, since that is one of the top issues in the state of Nevada.
• 10:18: Obama is laying out his service plan.  Students would get $4,000 per year for college if they do service either in the military or in their community for ten hours each week.
• 10:11: Well that was an interesting spat between Edwards and Obama.  Both essentially agreed with one another that combat missions in Iraq would end.  Interesting how Hillary didn't reply, because she has refused to say that combat missions would end there.
• 10:02: Edwards and Clinton are both picking on Obama.
• 10:00: Edwards just unfairly smeared Obama, and said that the drug industry is giving him money.  Actually, it's employees that are giving him money, and he has not taken a dime of lobbyist money.
• 9:55: Nice Obama, nice!  He is absolutely dead-on with regard to the payroll tax, and how Warren Buffet pays less on the payroll tax as a percentage of his income than his secretary.
• 9:51: Obama was the only one who opposed both bankruptcy bills.  Not surprising there.
• 9:50: Hillary is race-bating like crazy now, bringing up that she knows Hispanics and African-Americans are suffering.
• 9:49: And now it looks like Hillary voted for that bill too.
• 9:47: Edwards admits that his 2001 vote on the bankruptcy bill was a bad one, reminiscent of his admission that his war vote was wrong as well.  Well whatever happened to being correct in the first place?
• 9:45: Nice, Obama!  There's no way to bring up Kuwait without talking about changing our sad energy policy.
• 9:41: Of course Hillary gets the first substantive question of the night.
• 9:36: Good answer from Obama about the right-wing smear attacks, which alleged that he is a Muslim and was sworn in on a Koran.
• 9:30: This debate is pathetic so far.  To address the GOP race for just a moment, this is a huge win in Michigan for Mitt Romney.  It keeps him in the race.  Three races down, three winners for the Republicans.
• 9:27: Almost 30 minutes into it and no major blows.  The only tense moment was the audience interruption.
• 9:23: Interesting interruption there.
• 9:22: An audience member yelled at Russert and Williams for asking "race-bating questions from you two."
• 9:17: Terrible questions.  These have nothing to do with issues.
• 9:16: Edwards is coming off strong when it comes to being personally dedicated to what he is fighting for.  He's really pushing.
• 9:13: Russert is bringing in Obama's drug use.
• 9:09: Here we go.  Now Russert is asking Obama whether the Clinton people were responsible for the smear.  Obama is backing down a bit.
• 9:07: Obama: "We can't solve these challenges unless we come together as a people," when referring to the recent division within the Democratic Party.
• 9:06: By sitting in the middle, Hillary looks like an authority figure.  She appears to be mending fences with Obama, using Martin Luther King Jr as a reference.
• 9:04: And it's on.  Hillary is sitting in the middle, Edwards on the right and Obama on the left.
• 9:03: Here we go!  Mitt Romney has won in Michigan, by 7%.  Now on to the debate.

Feel free to follow along and add your comments in the box below.

Obvious race-based campaign tactics

Does Hillary think that muching down tacos on camera is her answer to winning over Latino voters?  What ever happened to being genuine?

As a life-long Democrat, this is the kind of thing that irks me.  Ever since January of '93, Hillary has been disconnected from average Americans.  Now she is doing an about-face, and it's working.  But will voters look beyond the show and notice the real tactics at hand?

Like it or not...

In South Carolina, race will be an issue.  This clip from last night is only a prequel:

Blue Radar

Here are some of the buzz stories circulating throughout the political blogosphere:

• IRAQ The Iraqi Defense Minister said on Tuesday that his country will require US help until the year 2018.
• ENERGY President Bush pleaded with OPEC today to increase output amid continuously rising prices at the pump, which could slow the US economy.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Democrats debate tonight at 9 PM ET.  The Las Vegas Review Journal has a preview.  (This is the most crucial debate Barack Obama has ever been in.)
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL AlterNet's Steven Rosenfeld has uncovered an active effort by the Clinton campaign to suppress likely Obama supporters in Nevada.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Politico is reporting on the new trend of red state Democrats that have endorsed Obama in recent days due to electability factors.  Those names include Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
• 2000 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL South Carolina Democrats (Rasmussen): Obama - 38%, Clinton - 33%, Edwards - 17%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL California Democrats (SurveyUSA): Clinton - 50%, Obama - 35%, Edwards - 10%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Nevada Democrats (Research 2000): Obama - 32%, Clinton - 30%, Edwards - 27%.

Feel free to add anymore stories to the comment box.

Tuesday's political coverage

On Tuesday we will ramp up our coverage once again -- both during the Democratic debate and the Michigan Republican Primary.  This debate is absolutely huge for Barack Obama, who absolutely needs to step it up a notch and cripple what has obviously been a momentum boost for Hillary Clinton ever since the New Hampshire primary.  Coverage starts at 6 PM ET.  We will also have updates throughout the day -- including the Blue Nightowl Clips, Blue Radar and other stories throughout the political world.

What is happening to the Democratic race

The title is not intended to be the question.  In two days time, Hillary Clinton captured the pop culture vote by suddenly proving to everyone that she is human.  The sympathy card worked.  So where are we now?  I hate to say this folks, but unless a miracle occurs Barack Obama's chances of getting the nomination are very slim.  He needs to expand on the "change" narrative and make it something much more believable and personable.

How personable?  Start by putting Michelle Obama into the spotlight.  If Hillary can get the sympathy of women, so can Michelle.  The way she hugged her husband right after his second place New Hampshire speech was very real.  She should be front and center, talking about why she loves her husband and why she looks up to him as a dedicated leader.  Talk about the family.  What are their values?  How will those values carry over to his work as president.  Again, make him personable.  If this turns into a gender war, Hillary Clinton will win easily, as well above 50% of Democrats are women.  Obama must find a way to resonate among women -- the same way Hillary did in New Hampshire.

The best case scenario for Obama is to win Nevada and South Carolina, and head into Florida and give it his all there.  Obama picked up some big union endorsements in Nevada, and might be able to carry it.  In South Carolina, more than 40% of all Democratic voters are African-American, and he leads in the latest poll there by 7%.

Still, after SC it's Florida, where Clinton has incredibly large support.  Ultimately, it will come down to the Super Tuesday states, such as California, which will decide the whole thing.  Loyal Democratic activists tend to support Hillary Clinton, while the younger and more independent progressives support Obama.  The problem is the Republican contest is still up for grabs, meaning that independents will split between the Democratic and Republican contests.  That is not good news for Obama.

Barack Bouncing Back - CWU Nevada Endores Obama

Despite taking second place in the New Hampshire primary, Barack Obama has picked up a huge endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union of Nevada; the site of the next caucus.

The union, which boasts a membership of more than 60,000, is seen as akey endorsement in Nevada, a state where there are less than 500,000registered Democrats in the whole state and certainly not all come outfor caucuses.

This could be enough to push Obama over the top in Nevada; a state where he was trailing Clinton by almost 20 points only a month ago. Nevada's Caucuses are scheduled for January 19th, with the South Carolina Primary following a week later.

New Hampshire running out of ballots

Early reports are in, and it's good news for Barack Obama.  A number of polling places are having difficulty keeping up with the overflow of crowds, meaning that turnout is extremely high today.  Why?  Well, it's a combination of things.

• Young voters are showing up, even more so than Iowans because winter break is over.
• It is warm in the Northeast.  I'm talking about climate change warm!  In a few polling destinations, people are showing up with shorts and a t-shirt.  It is in the upper 50s to lower 60s -- perfect for those who have never voted before.  All you have to do is show up and register there, pick a ballot and you are set.  Might as well do it, since you will be outside today anyway.
• Obama is simply on fire -- that is the most obvious of them all.

WBZ is reporting that some destinations are running out of ballots.  Come on Secretary of State!  Get it together!