The Blue State

Obama's New Hampshire rise on a graph

See for yourself the Obama surge in New Hampshire.  This is quite extraordinary.  Click on the graphic for a larger view:

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY COVERAGE

It's time for our special coverage of the New Hampshire primary.  We will give updates throughout the night.  Keep refreshing for updates:

• 10:51: Obama looks pretty sad, but the charisma is there.  This race is far from over!  Let's continue on to Nevada next week, and then South Carolina.  Have a great night all!
• 10:47: Now watch Hillary cut Obama off in the middle of his speech.
• 10:46: CNN is projecting Hillary Clinton the winner.  This night is over.  Sad, sad, sad.
• 10:45: Obama is about to come out and speak.
• 10:34: The AP is reporting that Clinton has won.
• 10:33: CNN is refusing to call it.
• 10:32: NBC says Hillary Clinton has won.
• 10:31: Hillary is now up by 5,000.  This thing could be over.
• 10:24: As George commented, it seems like the supporters of change that support Obama and Edwards are canceling one another out.  If they were together, they would beat Hillary.
• 10:06: Still, 61% is in.  This is nerve-racking!
• 10:05: Andrea Mitchell of NBC reports that Hanover is not in yet -- which is a university town.
• 9:50: Yes, now it looks like Hillary has what it takes to pull this out tonight.  No, the university towns are still not in.  However, exit polls show that throughout the state Hillary beat Obama among women by 13%.  And 57% of those who voted tonight in the Democratic primary were women.
• 9:42: Chris Matthews may have hit the nail on the head.  Hillary's emotional moment this week may have made a difference among women.  Her support among women tonight is phenomenal.
• 9:38: Clinton now up 3,400 votes.  Still, college towns not in.  Nonetheless, it is nerve-racking.
• 9:37: Clinton up by exactly 3,000 points.  It's 145,197 to 142,197.  Still, college towns have not reported.
• 9:32: With 43% of the precincts in, Clinton's lead is down to 2,100.
• 9:30: Obama will come back.  All the college towns have yet to come in.  CNN is reporting this.  Dartmouth University turnout is 2,000 higher than expected.  That is bad for Hillary.  Those votes have yet to come in as well.  Just hang in there folks.
• 9:28: The numbers are beginning to move a little bit in Obama's way.  The difference is down to around 2,300 with 42% of the precincts counted.
• 9:16: 3,237 is the vote difference.  Hillary still leads.  36% of the precincts have been counted.  However, remember, some precincts have more voters than others.  Many of the college towns have yet to be reported.
• 9:12: It looks like John McCain grabbed a huge support of independents -- possibly siphoning votes away from Obama.
• 9:10: I'm Back, and am officially scared out of my mind with these numbers.
• 8:26: Gonna grab some dinner.  Hillary is still ahead.  Be back in 10 minutes.
• 8:24: Hillary Clinton leads 40% to 35%.  Only 13% of the precincts have been counted.  Again, it's the rural ones.
• 8:22: Another example of how the early poll numbers only reflect the rural areas.  Chester precinct, for example, is way out in the middle of nowhere.  These are Hillary supporters.
• 8:18: I did some quick research.  The counties that have been reported are the rural ones.  Millsfield County, in particular, is far north.  The counties with the universities haven't been counted yet.
• 8:12: McCain has won, according to NBC.
• 8:11: 659 votes separate Clinton and Obama, with only 12% in.  Getting a bit more nervous now.  If Clinton finishes within five points, they can spin that they are coming back.
• 8:05: There are 301 precincts in New Hampshire.  28 have been reported, and Obama is down by one.  If it remains that close when we get to 100 precincts, then it will be time to worry.
• 8:02: Clinton is slightly ahead still.  I have the feeling this will be closer than we earlier thought.  About 10% are in.
• 8:00: CNN reports that John Edwards will finish third.
• 7:56: Will Hillary's fear tactic work?  She said today that there might be a terrorist attack, and that we need a president who is prepared.
• 7:51: There are new rumblings that Hillary Clinton is leading.  With six percent of the precincts reporting, she is up by 2%.  However, a commenter over at Kos claimed that this was Northern New Hampshire, where there are mostly older voters.
• 7:43: Polls are about to close in about 20 minutes.  We should know the results of the Democratic race immediately at 8 PM ET.

Confident about Obama

Going into this 8 PM ET poll closure in New Hampshire, I am more confident than ever about Barack Obama.  On Thursday of last week, I was quite skeptical, and thought maybe Edwards might pick up enough votes from Kucinich, Dodd, Richardson and Biden supporters in order to finish on top.  Now, four days removed from the media bounce that followed the Iowa Caucus, Obama is way ahead in New Hampshire.  He will win today.  The Illinois Senator may even hit the 40% range, which is bad news for John McCain because many of those votes will come from independents that chose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican contest.

The only thing I worry about in the long-term is that the media might be over-hyping Obama, which in American pop culture could lead to a rapid decline sometime in the near future.  When a pop figure like Obama is in the spotlight, the media then looks for a flaw that they can jump on and make a story out of.  After New Hampshire, Obama needs to be particularly careful -- especially during interviews and off the record conversations.  Keep small talk to a minimum.  The Hillary campaign is drooling to find something on him, and they can't, other than the mysterious complaint that if you aren't in Washington your whole life that somehow disqualifies you from being president.

In summary, Obama will win tonight.  But in the days and weeks ahead, he still has three eager opponents and the media that will soon ratchet up the pressure.  This race to the nomination is not over -- not at all!

First Ballots Cast in NH

At midnight Today, residents in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location New Hampshire casted the first ballots of the New Hampshire Primary. Although only 46 votes were cast, (23 for each party,) the results are staggering.

Barrack Obama 16 
Hillary Clinton   3
John Edwards   3
Bill Richardson  1

Although it's doubtful the final results will be as extreme as this, it shows Obama as the overall favorite in New Hampshire with Clinton and Edwards trailing.

More results to follow...

Obama now Leading in Recent SC Polls

With the New Hampshire Primary only hours away, new polling data from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show Obama now leading Clinton in the South Carolina Primary.

These polls are the only two taken since Obama's victory in Iowa last week. Here's a look at the shift.

Rasmussen 12/16  Clinton-33  Edwards-17  Obama-33

Rasmussen 1/6     Clinton-30  Edwards-14  Obama-42

SurveyUSA 12/17-18 Clinton-41 Edwards-17 Obama-39

SurveyUSA 1/4-6      Clinton-30 Edwards-16 Obama-50

As you can see, the polls show a massive jump for Obama, with the extra support coming from Hillary's camp (SurveyUSA) or from Second Tier Candidates asking their supporters to back Obama (Rasmussen.)

The O-mentum continues to build!

Obama has 90% chance of winning NH

Recent reports from online traders have rated Obama's likelihood of winning the New Hampshire Primary at an overwhelming 90%.

Odds that the 46-year-old Illinois senator will prevail intomorrow's vote jumped after he won last week's Iowa Democraticcaucuses, while wagers on New York Senator Hillary Clinton, thethird-placed finisher in Iowa, tumbled. Online traders say Clinton,60, has an 8.7 percent chance of winning in New Hampshire,according to futures contracts at Intrade, a unit of Dublin-basedTrade Exchange Network Co. Bettors give former North CarolinaSenator John Edwards, who placed second in Iowa, only a 0.3 percentchance of victory in New Hampshire.

Of course, there is still a long road ahead to Super Tuesday, and although the most recent polls in New Hampshire show Obama' surge in the Primary, he is still trailing in Nevada and South Carolina. (Granted, the current polls for those states are from a month ago and do not take the current "surge" into account.

At this time, I would like to coin the term "O-mentum." Add it to your dictionary, because I plan to use it a lot in the coming weeks.

But remember; these polls only count if people get out to vote tomorrow. So if you're in New Hampshire,GO VOTE!

OBAMA WINS IOWA CAUCUS

The anti-establishment, anti-war, fresh-face candidate won the Iowa Caucus -- a clear statement that voters want change.  There is no other way to describe it.  Hillary Clinton stood for the aristocracy that has controlled Washington for the last generation.  Iowans, as do all Americans, want change, and the former First lady stood for just the opposite.  Iowans picked two fresh faces -- Obama and Edwards.  I am proud to have worked for the last few years in the grassroots to make a difference, and articulated to one thousand people each day why we need change.  It takes an outsider to save a broken system, and Iowa proved that tonight.

Right in the mix

We are all ready.  Just hours until we go live all the way through the evening.  At 7 PM ET/4 PM PT, we will be following this voting event like no other!  See you all in a few hours, as I now take my break.

Poll: Obama and Edwards posed to finish in top-two

On the morning of caucus day, a poll has just been released that shows a last-minute surge for both Barack Obama and John Edwards.  It appears that many of the undecided voters are turning away from Hillary Clinton.  Here is the last Zogby Poll from Iowa:

IOWA DEMOCRATS
(likely caucus-goers)
Barack Obama - 31%
John Edwards - 27%
Hillary Clinton - 24%

Remember, Obama trailed in this same Zogby survey just days ago, and slowly crept back.

On the Republican side, Huckabee has a comfortable lead over Romney.  The surprise in the GOP poll is Fred Thompson, whose late surge has helped him pass McCain.

Timing of the caucus

Caucus Begins - 6:30 PM CT (that's 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT)
Caucus Ends - Around 7:45 or 8 PM CT

Networks will begin reporting "entrance polls" around 6:45 PM CT.  Since the caucus doors will be closed by then, it shouldn't impact the results, unless televisions are on in caucuses.  Again, these are entrance polls conducted by CNN, MSNBC and FOX News.  Entrance polls mean little because voters can become persuaded when in front of a large group.