The polling fuss

I know this won't ease the nerves a bit.  But just over 24 hours from the caucus, I have no idea who will win Iowa.  If I lived in Vegas and had to put money on a candidate, I'd maybe pick Obama, only because of the new Des Moines Register poll, which puts him well ahead of Edwards and Clinton.  Why?  Unlike other polls, that one called cell phone users.  Normally most polling companies are a bit skewed because they only call landlines.  But the Des Moines Register phoned mobile users, many of which are younger and will support Obama.

However, there is another question.  Will Obama's younger movement show up?  One thing is helping Obama there.  His support isn't just college adults.  He also leads among the 30 to 55 age demographic.  When it comes to age 55 and older, Clinton leads among the women, and Edwards has a huge lead among men.  These numbers are true in just about any poll you look at.

Lastly, there is the second-choice option.  In each precinct, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, they can either not have their vote count or choose a new candidate.  Among Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich supporters, Edwards has been polling very high as a second choice.  However, within the last 48 hours, Dennis Kucinich urged his supporters to vote for Obama if he fails to get beyond 15%.

Enough about polling.  Bring on the vote!