What is happening to the Democratic race

The title is not intended to be the question.  In two days time, Hillary Clinton captured the pop culture vote by suddenly proving to everyone that she is human.  The sympathy card worked.  So where are we now?  I hate to say this folks, but unless a miracle occurs Barack Obama's chances of getting the nomination are very slim.  He needs to expand on the "change" narrative and make it something much more believable and personable.

How personable?  Start by putting Michelle Obama into the spotlight.  If Hillary can get the sympathy of women, so can Michelle.  The way she hugged her husband right after his second place New Hampshire speech was very real.  She should be front and center, talking about why she loves her husband and why she looks up to him as a dedicated leader.  Talk about the family.  What are their values?  How will those values carry over to his work as president.  Again, make him personable.  If this turns into a gender war, Hillary Clinton will win easily, as well above 50% of Democrats are women.  Obama must find a way to resonate among women -- the same way Hillary did in New Hampshire.

The best case scenario for Obama is to win Nevada and South Carolina, and head into Florida and give it his all there.  Obama picked up some big union endorsements in Nevada, and might be able to carry it.  In South Carolina, more than 40% of all Democratic voters are African-American, and he leads in the latest poll there by 7%.

Still, after SC it's Florida, where Clinton has incredibly large support.  Ultimately, it will come down to the Super Tuesday states, such as California, which will decide the whole thing.  Loyal Democratic activists tend to support Hillary Clinton, while the younger and more independent progressives support Obama.  The problem is the Republican contest is still up for grabs, meaning that independents will split between the Democratic and Republican contests.  That is not good news for Obama.

Comments

[George]

Excellent point about Michelle Obama. She is a really sharp woman also.

I am very confident in Obama now though. I believe the more people see him the more they will like him. The opposite happens with Clinton.

So let's win SC and Nevada and take it from.

But let's work for this too! Let's canvass, make calls and donate whatever we can. $10 is helpful. It is. Buy a bumper sticker for $5. This stuff helps.

[matthias]

wont the result of the florida primary be neglected because of breaking the party rules?

[Roger]

286,139 - Machine vs Hand (RonRox.com) 09 Jan 2008
Hillary Clinton, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 39.618%
Clinton, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 34.908%
Barack Obama, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 36.309%
Obama, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 38.617%
Machine vs Hand:
Clinton: 4.709% (13,475 votes)
Obama: -2.308% (-6,604 votes)

Voter Fraud in New Hampshire????????

Diebold strikes again.

[Roger]

Here is the website with the info on the N.H. voter fraud.

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_ron_corv_080109_new_hampshire_electi.htm

[Kid Hill]

I wouldn't get too down, not only is Obama getting the right kind of endorsements left and right, but he also has a much better ground organization than Clinton (at least it certainly appears so here in California).

[George]

Yep - The 3 day trend is positive for Clinton but the 1 month trend has Clinton collapsing not so slowly.

Obama just has to keep the pressure going by building his name recognition. Introducing Michelle Obama, and picking up more credible endorsements.

[Michel]

I don't think it is as doomed as this post says. I think everyone is currently in a "let's wait and see what happens" frame of mind.

[Justin]

Geez Todd. I mean, I respect what you're trying to do with this site, and I wouldn't have come to work with you if I didn't, but this latest post...

I understand the nature of being realistic rather than idealistic, but really man... Obama has placed 1st and 2nd. Hillary has placed 3rd and 1st. Edwards has placed 2nd and 3rd.

This is far from over, and shame on you for even opening the door to the concept that it is.

[George]

One major problem i see right now for Obama is this: Clinton is holding forums where she answers questions. Obama is giving speeches. If he gets too preachy, he's gonna lose.

I know he can talk, but lets see him answer questions.

[rawdawgbuffalo]

thats what hapens when folk vote their conscious, i mean its cool to say u will vote for a black man, but in your heart, u call a spade a spade... but on the real, when will they (dem and GOP horses) really discuss iraq ....the new efforts and focus on surge and money will not work . sunni or latter

[al loomis]

how come democrats don't want to talk about democracy? if the voters had citizen initiative they wouldn't have to rely on having good people in positions of power. that's a formula for recurring disaster, of which bush2 is merely the latest example.

so, are you backing gravel's idea about 'initiative for democracy'? nope.

makes me think it's just a football game to you, not a struggle for a fair and just society.

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Justin, sorry you feel that way. But I really think that Hillary Clinton has a slight leg up on Obama at the moment. If Obama wins both Nevada and South Carolina, then he will have a slight leg up. It's just harder for Obama because he's unknown to many people, unlike Hillary. I'll explain more after work.

[Michel]

Interesting comment in the Washington Post:

Palo Alto, Calif.: What will John Edwards do and when will he do it?

Jonathan Weisman: Oy, how should I know? My guess is he's stick around until Feb. 5. If he has a poor showing in South Carolina, then does badly again in the South on Super Duper Tuesday, he drops out and endorses Obama.

[Andy]

Obama would still stand a great chance even if he splits Nevada and South Carolina. It will be hard, sure, but Clinton is no forgone conclusion. She does still dominate among the typical Democrat, but with much of the establishment giving Obama a second look (see: lots of recent endorsements) that could change with a win or two before Feb 5. Either way, it will be fun to watch.