Major obstacles ahead for Obama

This race isn't over.  After viewing two new polls from today -- one from Pennsylvania and one from Ohio -- it is becoming clearer that Barack Obama still has a lot of work to do in order to get the nomination.  It doesn't really matter that Obama now leads Clinton nationally.  We already had our Super Tuesday.  The March 4th "Mini Super Tuesday" is much more local.  It favors states that Hillary is bound to do well in.  Also, the vote in Texas could lean Clinton's way because Obama neglected to start courting Hispanic voters until the very end.  He will have a lot of catching up to do.

Now I bet all of you are wondering why I bring up Pennsylvania, especially since that state won't vote until April?  Due to the limited primary schedule in March, I foresee a scenario where Hillary could pull off a string of victories, and voters would be given one month to think about it, and Pennsylvania could go her way in April.  Look at the calendar:

February 19th: Wisconsin, Hawaii (likely Obama victories)

But look at these:
March 4th: Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, Texas (Hillary could take two of four)
March 8th: Wyoming (Another possible Clinton victory)
March 11th: Mississippi (Obama victory)

April 22nd: Pennsylvania (Up in the air)

From March 12th to April 22nd, no states vote.  That means the Clinton campaign will have more than one month to attack Obama with everything they possibly have.  As we have learned, 40 days in politics is an eternity.

This is why Obama needs to put almost every resource he has into the March 4th states.  He will be able to raise money between March 12th and April 22nd anyway, so he shouldn't worry about saving.  He needs to spend now.  Blanket the airwaves in Texas and Ohio.  If Obama wins those states, he can end it.  If he loses Texas and Ohio, it will drag on until the convention and we will be looking at a split ticket.

Comments

[Bill]

I would guess that Wyoming goes for Obama. He has pretty much won that whole corner of the country, starting from Washington and extending to the Great Lakes, south to Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska. He probably would have taken California too, if not for the early voting.

[george]

Interesting analysis, Todd. You are right on about going all out to win Texas and Ohio.

I agree with Bill that Obama will win Wyoming. Obama will also win easy in Mississippi. If we get that far.

It comes down to this:
1. Clinton has been blown out in too many states to not win BOTH Texas and Ohio now. She must win both. Obama needs ONE. One and we're done.

2. I think this idea of going to the convention is over-reported. Yes, it could happen, but the Democratic Party would be insane to let it happen. If Obama can maintain his momentum thru the 4th, the Dems would be crazy to let the Clintons try to chop down the best thing that has happened to the party in 50 years.

3. Obama is down 15 in Texas and Ohio. But they are both states where Independents can vote. So he can come back. And he will.

4. Gotta hold down Wisconsin on Tuesday. And does anyone know if Obama is doing anything at all in Hawaii?

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Nope, no events in Hawaii. That state is definitely a winner for him. Wisconsin is actually quite close (four point lead for Obama in the latest poll). We cannot let Clinton win that on February 19th.

George, I still think if Clinton wins any on March 4th she will stay in it. She shouldn't. But she will.

[Bill]

I'm a little worried about Wisconsin. I'd feel much better if that lead was 10 , because its not a caucus state. That could go either way.

But I'm going to make a bold prediction right here: Obama wins Texas. Clinton was only up 12 points last April, and that is bound to be depleted by now. I also like that fact that 25% of it is a caucus.

Game. Set. Match.

[Michel]

BREAKING: Check this out. For the first time ever, pollster.com, which averages out all the major polls, has Obama ahead of Clinton in the national poll: http://www.pollster.com/US2TopzDems.png