The Blue State

Let's end this on March 4th!

What a reassuring result last night.  Clinton's negative attacks all week long about Obama's speeches did not sway voters in Wisconsin.  Now, with just two weeks until the big March 4th election, Barack Obama is on the verge of knocking Hillary Clinton out of the race.

Not only can Obama maybe win Texas, new polling suggests he can even win Ohio.  Clinton now leads by nine points -- meaning her lead has been cut in half just over the last week.  According to the Columbus Dispatch, the Obama Campaign is now going after Ohio like crazy, knowing full well they can end this race.  They plan to spend twice as much as Hillary Clinton will on ads.

I don't want to raise expectations too high.  Still, we now have a chance to win all four states on March 4th.  Even if we win three, it's a knockout blow.  Her campaign is in disarray, says Kos, the most popular progressive activist:

You know what we don't have? A single close contest. Not a one. Therejection of Hillary Clinton has been absolute. Okay, Obama didn'tsweep with 20 victories, but really, he did what he had to do. Hillaryonly has *one* two victories above 17 points (Arkansas and Oklahoma). I'm surprised he even won Maine. Clinton's campaign is now effectively dead.

Let's end it!  Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont -- this is your time.  We need to end this race.  John McCain is waiting for us.  President Bush has a 19% approval rating (yes, you read me right!).  We need to move on to the Republicans.  Let's end this on March 4th, and then we will be one giant leap closer to a new kind of presidency in this country.

ELECTION DAY IN WISCONSIN AND HAWAII

Even projections inside the Obama campaign point to this being a close night -- not just in Wisconsin, but in Hawaii as well.  Or is this another ploy to talk down expectations on election night, only to have Obama celebrate a big win?  We will see.

Use this post throughout the day to comment on the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries .  This is the last election night before the big March 4th primary.  Make us proud, Wisconsin!  GO OBAMA!!

Obama is only candidate that can beat McCain in Wisconsin

Wisconsin, when you head to the polls tomorrow, hopefully your decision will be based on more than solely which candidate you like.  Also ask yourself who can beat McCain?  In Wisconsin, the difference it pretty big.

Survey USA:

Wisconsin General Election

49% - John McCain
42% - Hillary Clinton

52% - Barack Obama
42% - John McCain

And when you look at some of the internals, the differences are even more striking.  Among women, Clinton's supposed strong suit, McCain beats her by six.  Among Hispanics, Hillary's other alleged strength, McCain beats her 81% to 13%.  When it's Obama versus McCain, Obama wins among every age and gender demographic.  Racially, he only loses among Hispanics, but only by 8 points.

So, Wisconsin Democrats, who do you want to face John McCain this November?

It's a team effort in Ohio

The media isn't really paying attention to this.  Ted Kennedy is unlike most other Obama endorsers.  Unlike them, he has actually followed through and spent hours upon hours campaigning for him in swing states.  In preparation for the big contest on March 4th, Kennedy is in Ohio.  This was from the weekend:

What Wisconsin means for Obama

With the nation's eyes set on the big March 4th primaries, it's important we don't understate the importance of the contests tomorrow in Wisconsin and Hawaii.  For obvious reasons, Hawaii is bound to be a certain victory for the Illinois Senator.  But Wisconsin poses an opportunity for Hillary Clinton to turn around her entire campaign, and grab the late-month momentum.  More than anything, if Hillary takes Wisconsin it will increase the importance of the two debates coming up.  If Obama wins, on the other hand, the debates become less important, as Obama's nomination would look more inevitable.

So a lot is riding on the vote in Wisconsin tomorrow.  In the latest American Research Group poll, Hillary leads in Wisconsin 49% to 43%.  However, the Clinton campaign isn't that confident.  They are scaling back their efforts there:

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has scaled back her Wisconsin campaignschedule by a full day, and is now planning to leave the state afterMonday morning instead of Tuesday morning.

The move suggests the campaign does not think it can overtake rival Barack Obama here.

What is her campaign thinking?   They could turn everything around if they just win in Wisconsin.  Instead, they are mortgaging everything to prepare for Texas and Ohio.  But if they don't have any momentum heading into those March 4th contests, then how can they expect to win?  It makes no sense to me.

Yes We Can

Major obstacles ahead for Obama

This race isn't over.  After viewing two new polls from today -- one from Pennsylvania and one from Ohio -- it is becoming clearer that Barack Obama still has a lot of work to do in order to get the nomination.  It doesn't really matter that Obama now leads Clinton nationally.  We already had our Super Tuesday.  The March 4th "Mini Super Tuesday" is much more local.  It favors states that Hillary is bound to do well in.  Also, the vote in Texas could lean Clinton's way because Obama neglected to start courting Hispanic voters until the very end.  He will have a lot of catching up to do.

Now I bet all of you are wondering why I bring up Pennsylvania, especially since that state won't vote until April?  Due to the limited primary schedule in March, I foresee a scenario where Hillary could pull off a string of victories, and voters would be given one month to think about it, and Pennsylvania could go her way in April.  Look at the calendar:

February 19th: Wisconsin, Hawaii (likely Obama victories)

But look at these:
March 4th: Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, Texas (Hillary could take two of four)
March 8th: Wyoming (Another possible Clinton victory)
March 11th: Mississippi (Obama victory)

April 22nd: Pennsylvania (Up in the air)

From March 12th to April 22nd, no states vote.  That means the Clinton campaign will have more than one month to attack Obama with everything they possibly have.  As we have learned, 40 days in politics is an eternity.

This is why Obama needs to put almost every resource he has into the March 4th states.  He will be able to raise money between March 12th and April 22nd anyway, so he shouldn't worry about saving.  He needs to spend now.  Blanket the airwaves in Texas and Ohio.  If Obama wins those states, he can end it.  If he loses Texas and Ohio, it will drag on until the convention and we will be looking at a split ticket.

TUESDAY PRIMARIES

Use this thread to discuss tonight's three primaries: Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.  GO OBAMA!!!  I hope this evening we will be celebrating a sweep.

Obama at Duncan Donuts this morning

Fired up and ready to go on voting day!

Let's go for 8 in a row

Tomorrow, Barack Obama has a chance to sweep the much anticipated February 12th primaries, which include Washington D.C., Maryland and Virginia.  If he does, that will bring his streak of consecutive wins to eight -- meaning he has not lost a contest since Super Tuesday.

But let's not be giddy.  It looks like John Edwards may endorse Hillary Clinton, which means that the downward pressure on Clinton's campaign, which reached a boiling point yesterday with the removal of her campaign manager, could turn around.  So for everyone voting tomorrow, I want to see all of you, as soon as you get done with work or school, head out to major intersections and hold up Obama signs.  Give friends rides to the polling stations.  Call neighbors, brothers, sisters, parents and co-workers.  Tell them how imperative it is that they get out and vote.  The ball is in our court now.  This is ours to lose.  Let's go win it!