The Blue State

Don't sweat the war over 'Super Delegates'

Many of Barack Obama's supporters are worried that even if he continues this momentus string of wins through February the race will be decided by Washington establishment types who favor the Clinton family.  For a number of reasons, I don't think that will happen.  First, if Obama has a lead of 150 or more among delegates that were awarded by actual voters, it would be both unprecedented and unforgiveable for Super Delegates to go against the will of voters.  Many Democratic activists would revolt against the party.  Secondly, it wouldn't be smart for Super Delegates to do such a thing.  We all know that most politicians, as well as most people, act in their own self-interest.  If governors, senators and representatives felt that Barack Obama's nomination increased their chances of being reelected for another term, they would definitely chose that option.  And lastly, there is Howard Dean.  If he truly is an advocate of people-powered politics, he would be actively involved in trying to prevent the Clintons from manipulating their way to the top of the Democratic ticket.

So what does this mean?  Don't worry!  Let's just focus on us doing our part to win as many states as possible.  If Obama has a sizeable lead -- again, of at least 150 pledged delegates or more -- the Super Delegates will realize that going against Democratic voters on this one is not a smart move.

Tough day ahead in Maine

A leaked strategy memo from the Obama campaign predicts a narrow loss in the Maine caucuses today, based on internal data that shows a strong backing for Hillary among women.  This was the same problem that Obama had in New Hampshire.  However, it is also possible that his campaign is playing down expectations so that if he wins it will be an even larger boost for Obama heading into Tuesday's big primary.  We shall see.

For all you Obamaniacs in Maine, this is one we still can take.  Make sure all of your friends, co-workers and family members take just two hours out of their Sunday to cast their support for Obama.  Give carpools.  Hold up Obama signs near major intersections.  Wear Obama pins when you go to the supermarket.  Do what you can!  We can do this!

A wowing Obama speech

This speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner was really something.  He's trying to establish himself as the inevitable candidate -- the candidate who will face McCain.  Very smart move.  He accused the Arizona Senator of flip-flopping on the Bush tax cuts.  Obama added that McCain would not be able to say that he voted for the war.  He is already prepping for the general election!

But let's not forget that Obama only has a slight lead in the field of delegates.  We need to keep up this effort nationwide -- tomorrow with Maine, and on Tuesday with Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

Obama wins all February 9th primaries

We might look back on today as the moment when Barack Obama's campaign took off for the finish line.  He not only won in Washington, he dominated Washington.  He also defeated Clinton easily in Nebraska.  And although Louisiana was called last, that was a comfortable win for the Illinois Senator as well.

On a personal note, today I became an Obama delegate.  Three siblings of mine became alternates, and up north one of my cousins was named as a delegate as well.  Compared to the '04 caucus, this one was a unique experience that I will never forget, just because of the passion on the Obama side.  That very energy help attract many undecided voters today.

Now, back to the race.  It's Maine tomorrow, and then on Tuesday it's D.C., Maryland and Virginia.  Maine might go to Clinton, tomorrow.  But D.C., Maryland and Virginia should be Obama wins.  What an amazing moment!

*UPDATE (11:03 PM): Obama wins the Virgin Island with about 90% of the vote.  That's four wins tonight by Obama, and none for Clinton.

My precinct voted for Obama

What a surprise!  I just got back from the caucus.  Before I check out and head to a movie with a friend, I am happy to report on the enthusiasm that came out of the Methodist Church in View Ridge, Seattle, Washington.  I live in an area where, demographically speaking, Hillary should do well.  But Obama carried our precinct so overwhelmingly that he was awarded 4 delegates, while Hillary was awarded only 1.  A number of people who spoke were undecided one week ago, but today decided to support Obama because of the electability factor.  That was what I spoke about.

Compared to 2004, we had more than twice as many Democrats show up.  Amazing!  There was even a great deal of enthusiasm for Obama among older women, which demographically are Hillary's base voters.  There was no Obama speaker.  Only a Clinton speaker.  But those on the Obama side, including myself, were quick to touch on every single point -- such as:
- Do we want 28 years of just two families running the country?
- Obama's war vote vs Edwards/Clinton war votes.
- Electability (which I spoke about the most)
- New generation of leaders.
- Hope inspires citizens to participate in the democratic system.

What a great moment!  And now the returns are about to come in!

Election Day

It's time!  Let's get out there, Washington!  GO OBAMA!

This is it, Washington State

This is to you, every Washingtonian -- and this includes myself, family members who visit this site and everyone else here from my home state.  Let's do this.  When you go to your caucus, fight for every single vote.  Don't be too pushy.  If you are young, go up to an undecided senior citizen and explain to that person why Obama inspires you and your friends.  If you are talking to a young person, tell that individual about how Obama, more so than Clinton, will call upon the next generation to lead.  If Obama is president, everyone will have a stake in this democracy.  We cannot afford to let the D.C. establishment types continue business as usual for the next eight years.  We have the power to change, and that change can happen this afternoon if we fight for every single vote.

On the ground in Washington

Things here are a lot closer than I had previously thought.  Discouragingly enough, there are no pre-election polls in any of the February 9th states, including Washington, to report.  But from the atmosphere around western Washington, which is the most pro-Democratic part of the state, so many voters are undecided.  This isn't good.  Even young voters, for example, are attending both Clinton and Obama rallies.  Luckily for Seattle, Obama is speaking here last.  But the local television stations will focus on both of them tonight, because while Obama speaks at this very moment in Seattle, just 30 miles south, in Tacoma, Hillary is holding a rally.

Speaking of Tacoma, this is precisely where Hillary will need to do well.  The rural area of Pierce County, just south of King County (Seattle), could decide the election.  If there is a depressed vote in King County (where I am) and a strong turnout in Pierce County, then Obama is in trouble.  But I don't foresee dedicated Democrats in Seattle staying home.

While a lot of what I wrote is contradictory, "contradictory" is indeed the word of the day coming out of Washington.  So many initial indicators point towards an Obama victory, but we just do not know where these undecided voters will go, and how big Hillary's support is in Pierce County.

Here is a map of Washington with all the counties:

Saturday's Battleground: Washington State

Obama is expected to carry Nebraska and Louisiana with relative ease.  The real test will come in Washington State, where Obama's strong support in college towns will go head-to-head with Clinton's rural backing.  Being that it is my home state, I will cover it no other!

Let me second what I wrote in a comment to another post:

Most of Seattle, except for the part where I live, is solidlypro-Obama... Remember, we're coffee drinkers and collegeeducated....so that's Obama.

What I'm very worried about is rural Washington. I'm talking aboutSnohomish County, just 20 minutes north of the city limits. I'm alsotalking about south of Tacoma, Washington. Also, Wenatchee and Yakima,which are located in central-eastern Washington, are Clinton territory.Spokane, Washington....which is in the far east, is very pro-Obama.It's a college town where Gonzaga University is located. I haverelatives over there. Their friends are caucusing for Obama. Down inPullman, Washington, south of Spokane, is where Washington StateUniversity is located. That is another Obama stronghold.

So what does all this mean? It means Washington will go to Obamaunless rural western Washington (in the counties south and north ofSeattle) are strongly Clinton. We need high turnout in college towns(Seattle, Bellingham, Pullman, and Spokane).

Here is a map of Washington, to get familiar with the area.  Lastly, Obama is in Seattle on Friday at 11 AM at Key Arena.

Hillary is in trouble

Despite what any of the pundits said, last night was huge for the Obama Campaign.  He won more states and more delegates.  After raising $32 million in January alone, compared to Hillary's $13 million, Obama is in the drivers seat to blanket the airwaves with ads in the remaining states.  Hillary, on the other hand, is preparing to take out a loan from the bank in order to compete.

The following states are voting on Saturday:
- Washington (it's a caucus, and it's my home state!)
- Louisiana (huge edge to Obama there.)
- Nebraska (maybe the edge is Clinton's.)
- Virgin Islands

One on Sunday:
- Maine

On February 12th, a number of big ones:
- Washington D.C.
- Maryland
- Virginia

February 19th:
- Hawaii (Obama's birthplace.  That should be a landslide.)
- Wisconsin (Obama won the neighboring state of Minnesota.)

March 1st:
- American Samoa

The real "Super Tuesday" could come on March 4th, as the blue-collar states vote.  It will be Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont.  Ohio might be Hillary's last stand.

What a race!