Upcoming Contests and the Delegate Math

Not much left.  Frustrating enough, there is a huge gap between the two upcoming contests and the one next month in Pennsylvania:

March 08: Wyoming (Caucus) - 12 pledged delegates, 6 superdelegates
March 11: Mississippi (Primary) - 33 pledged delegates, 7 superdelegates

April 22: Pennsylvania (Primary) - 158 pledged delegates, 30 superdelegates

May 03: Guam (Caucus) - 4 pledged delegates, 1 superdelegate
May 06: Indiana (Primary) - 72 pledged delegates, 12 superdelegates
May 06: North Carolina (Primary) - 115 pledged delegates, 19 superdelegates
May 13: West Virginia (Primary) - 28 pledged delegates, 11 superdelegates
May 20: Kentucky (Primary) - 51 pledged delegates, 9 superdelegates
May 20: Oregon (Primary) - 52 pledged delegates, 13 superdelegates

June 03: Montana (Primary) - 16 pledged delegates, 8 superdelegates
June 03: South Dakota (Primary) - 15 pledged delegates, 8 superdelegates
June 07: *Puerto Rico (Caucus) - 55 pledged delegates, 8 superdelegates

* Puerto Rico is traditionally a winner-take-all caucus, meaning the candidate with the largest plurality obtains all pledged and superdelegates.

So in all, there are 611 pledged delegates remaining.

Comments

[Chief Editor: Todd]

In other words, in order for Clinton to catch Obama, assuming the remaining superdelegates split, Clinton would need to beat Obama 356 to 255 among the remaining pledged delegates. That would put them in a tie for the overall lead.

That is almost impossible. For that to happen, Clinton would need to win 56% of the vote all of the way through. That won't happen in places such as Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Guam and Puerto Rico.

Clinton's best chances are in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina and maybe West Virginia.

[Arlen]

Puerto Rico is NOT a winner take all caucus-- they use proportionate delegate allocation just like other Democratic contests do.

This has been falsely reported by a few reporters, but it's NOT true. There are no winner take all contests in the Democratic primary this year.

[George]

Clinton CAN win the delegate math.

If she wins PA she will likely win almost every state after that. Plus, she'd close the gap in popular vote in the process.

If she wins popular vote and closes the pledged delegate gap to around 50-80, she has a legitimate claim and would not need overwhelming super delegate support.

Obama must show very strong in PA then win Oregan, NC, and a few other states to keep his ~130 delegate lead and hold the popular vote edge.

THEN Obama is in control. But if he doesnt win PA i think his best case scenario is having clinton on as VP.

[Bill]

Not true George.

Your first point- "if Clinton wins PA, she will win every state after that." NO WAY. She will not win NC or Oregon, regardless of what happens in PA. And I predict Obama will lose PA by a similar margin as Ohio. Same type of people.

Your second point-- a 50-80 point delegate gap is not a legitamate claim. I believe it is more like 10-25. If Obama has a pledged delegate lead of over 25, Clinton cannot rightfully use superdelegates to make up that gap, IMO.

Last-- Clinton as VP-- no effing way this happens under any circumstances. If he wants a woman, he's be better off with a Sebelius or a McCaskill.

[george]

If he loses PA by a lot he will lose momentum big time I fear. That's why i think he'd then lose NC and other states. Maybe he'd still win Montana.

But the reason i say he'd need clinton as VP is to keep her supporters on board. But maybe you're right, Sebelius could help with that. However, i fear mccain would be tough to beat if obama doesnt choose a tough person as the #2.

[Bill]

You may be right George. Actually re-reading that last post I made, I was probably a little too pumped, lol.