PA polling data -- the day before

Obama is closing in on Hillary fast, but it probably still won't be enough to catch her.  Even Obama himself is already proclaiming Hillary as the likely victor in PA.  Here are a number of polls just one day before the vote.

Quinnipiac:

51% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA:

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA has been the most reliable so far this campaign season.

Public Policy Polling:

49% - Barack Obama
46% - Hillary Clinton

Don't even bother with this one.  PPP has been way off ever since Iowa.  Their polls have indicated for quite some time that Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, which is contradicted by just about every other poll out there.

Zogby:

48% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Suffolk University:

52% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Rasmussen:

49% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

So in summary, if the average of the more reliable polls (Survey USA, Rasmussen and Suffolk University) are 50% Hillary to 44% Obama, then on election day we can expect it to be around 54% Clinton to 46% Obama.  If Hillary gets better than that, like in the 56% mark or higher, she will have a reason to drag this thing on much longer.  If it's closer, look for Democratic Party leaders to rally around Obama, setting up Clinton's do-or-die contest in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.

Comments

[Indiana John]

With all the attention on PA, what's gone unnoticed (except for that lush woman downing a shot & beer on TV) is what is happening in Indiana. Not Indiana, PA (there is one). But the state of Indiana. Obama's organization has worked very hard. Thousands were registed in NW Indiana alone - more new registrations than in the last 8 years - combined! In a state with the beloved lukewarm Dem Senator Bayh endoring the sniper dodger, many pundits think the race'll be within a 50,000 vote margin.