The Blue State

Michael Moore endorses Obama

Fresh off the wires today, filmmaker Michael Moore is endorsing Barack Obama for president:

I want to say a word about the basic decency I have seen in Mr.Obama. Mrs. Clinton continues to throw the Rev. Wright up in his faceas part of her mission to keep stoking the fears of White America.Every time she does this I shout at the TV, "Say it, Obama! Say thatwhen she and her husband were having marital difficulties regardingMonica Lewinsky, who did she and Bill bring to the White House for'spiritual counseling?' THE REVEREND JEREMIAH WRIGHT!"

But no, Obama won't throw that at her. It wouldn't be right. Itwouldn't be decent. She's been through enough hurt. And so he remainssilent and takes the mud she throws in his face.

That's why the crowds who come to see him are so large. That's whyhe'll take us down a more decent path. That's why I would vote for himif Michigan were allowed to have an election.

Full Text

I don't care what anyone says -- in the primaries, this will help him, if anything.

PA polling data -- the day before

Obama is closing in on Hillary fast, but it probably still won't be enough to catch her.  Even Obama himself is already proclaiming Hillary as the likely victor in PA.  Here are a number of polls just one day before the vote.

Quinnipiac:

51% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA:

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA has been the most reliable so far this campaign season.

Public Policy Polling:

49% - Barack Obama
46% - Hillary Clinton

Don't even bother with this one.  PPP has been way off ever since Iowa.  Their polls have indicated for quite some time that Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, which is contradicted by just about every other poll out there.

Zogby:

48% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Suffolk University:

52% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Rasmussen:

49% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

So in summary, if the average of the more reliable polls (Survey USA, Rasmussen and Suffolk University) are 50% Hillary to 44% Obama, then on election day we can expect it to be around 54% Clinton to 46% Obama.  If Hillary gets better than that, like in the 56% mark or higher, she will have a reason to drag this thing on much longer.  If it's closer, look for Democratic Party leaders to rally around Obama, setting up Clinton's do-or-die contest in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.

It's all about the media's portrayal of Hillary's chances

Heading into the final day of campaigning before the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton is poised to claim a victory over Barack Obama.  The question is how large of a victory will it be?  And an even larger question than that is how will the media choose to spin that victory?  In other words, if Obama closes within five points, will the media go bananas and declare that Hillary is back in the race, or will they take the logical route and explain that the former First Lady mathematically eliminated herself by not taking full advantage of her last opportunity to substantially diminish Obama's lead among pledged delegates with time running out before all the states have voted?

It's up to you Brian WIlliams, Wolf Blitzer, Chris Matthews, Howard Fineman, Anderson Cooper, Katie Couric, and Keith Olbermann.  If you plan to give us a narrative, give us one based on fact.

Obama closing in on Clinton in PA

The pundits, the reporters, the bloggers -- including myself -- who thought Obama may have hurt himself in the debate a few days ago were all wrong.  In fact, Obama may have won the debate.  According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in the state of Pennsylvania, taken just yesterday, Obama is closing in on Clinton:

Pennsylvania Democrats -- Taken 4/17 (4/14)
47% - Hillary Clinton (50%)
44% - Barack Obama (41)

What an incredible development!  If the Obama campaign pushes hard this weekend, they may be able to end this race.  DNC Chairman Howard Dean is putting an immense amount of pressure on super delegates to make a decision.  If he wins, it's over.  If it's close, super delegates will still flock to his side.

Blue Radar

As we post each morning, here are the political buzz stories headlining the newspapers and blogs before you head to work today:

• JUDICIARY The US Supreme Court upheld the state of Kentucky's method of lethal injection.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Philadelphia Daily News has endorsed Barack Obama for president.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL During an appearance in North Carolina, Barack Obama suggested that 21 debates might be enough.  "I'll be honest with you, we've now had 21," Obama said. "It's not as ifwe don't know how to do these things. I could deliver Sen. Clinton'slines; she could, I'm sure, deliver mine."
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL According to an ABC News poll, only 39% of voters view Hillary Clinton as honest and trustworthy, down from 52% in May of 2006.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Gallup): Obama - 49%, Clinton - 43%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Pennsylvania Democrats (Rasmussen): Clinton - 50%, Obama - 41%.

More posts throughout the day.

Blue Nightowl Clips

Here are some of the top political clips making their rounds on the blogs at this hour:

1. Karl Rove sends MSNBC's Dan Abrams an angry letter.
2. Obama: It took 45 minutes for them to talk about regular issues during debate.
3. Bosnia and Back Again, Starring Hillary Clinton.  Wow!!!!  This should win an online Emmy!

More clips tomorrow.

If Obama did poorly, he picked a bad night

More than 10 million viewers tuned in to watch the Democratic debate last night, making it the most-watched debate this primary season.  Throughout the verbal dual, Obama was constantly on the defensive.  We will need to wait a few days to see whether polls indicate that viewers thought the questioning was unbalanced, or whether they thought Obama just did poorly.

Hopefully it was the former.

Super Delegate switches vote to Obama

Just in:

You heard it here first. Council member and newly elected superdelegateHarry Thomas Jr., initially a supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton,is announcing in minutes that he will cast his vote at the DemocraticNational Convention in Denver for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Obama Campaign had been rumoring this morning that a few Clinton super delegates were going to switch.

Blue Radar

As we post each morning, here are the political buzz stories headlining the newspapers and blogs before you head to work today:

• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL During the Democratic debate last night, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton vowed to bring the party together after the nominee has been chosen.  “I will do everything to make sure that the people who supported me will support the nominee,” Clinton said.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Two hours before the debate, Barack Obama released his 2007 tax returns to the public.  As a result of multiple speaking engagements and book sales, Obama earned $4.7 million last year -- more than in the previous seven years combined.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Singer Bruce Springsteen has endorsed Barack Obama for President.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The American Hunters and Shooters Association has endorsed Barack Obama.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Three more super delegates have endorsed Barack Obama -- two from North Carolina and one from Indiana.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, Clinton - 41%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL North Carolina Democrats (ARG): Obama - 52%, Clinton - 41%.

More posts throughout the day.

Blue Nightowl Clips

As we post in the middle of each night, here are some of the political clips making their rounds on the blogs this hour:

1. FOX attacks Obama ahead of PA primary.
2. Obama's "dime" tv ad in PA.
3. Michelle Obama on Colbert Report.  NICE!

More clips tomorrow.