The Blue State

Before you get excited

Before you get excited about the news all over the cable networks that Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, take a reality pill.  Public Policy Polling, which conducted the survey, has been way off on just about every poll since the Iowa Caucuses.  Last week in their poll, Obama was ahead by two.  This week, he is up by three, 45% to 42%.  I don't think so!  While the trends show that the Hillary-McCain cross-examination of Obama's bitter comments did not go anywhere, he still trails in just about every other poll.

Obama needs a miracle to win Pennsylvania.  Obama's supporters there had better show up in droves on election day in order to make that happen.

Blue Radar

As we post each morning, here are the political buzz stories headlining the newspapers and blogs before you head to work today:

• ENVIRONMENT China has surpassed the United States as the earth's number one carbon polluter.
• CONGRESS Senator Arlen Specter's (R-PA) cancer has returned.  He still plans to seek a new term.
• INTERNATIONAL Vladimir Putin will step down as president and become the new Russian Prime Minister.  This will take place in roughly three weeks.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Joe Lieberman is leaving open the idea of giving a keynote address at the Republican National Convention this summer.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Gallup): Obama - 51%, Clinton - 40%.
• 2008ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, Clinton - 40%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Pennsylvania Democrats (Bloomberg): Clinton - 46%, Obama - 41%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL North Carolina Democrats (Bloomberg): Obama - 47%, Clinton - 34%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Indiana Democrats (Bloomberg): Obama - 40%, Clinton - 35%.

More posts throughout the day.

Blue Nightowl Clips

Here are some of the top political clips making their rounds on the blogs at this hour:

1. Obama in PA on Tuesday.
2. Clinton campaign conference call.
3. New Obama tv ad.

More clips tomorrow.

Wave of new polls show Clinton holding PA lead

In just about every poll you look at, with less than one week to go, Obama's chances of winning there are slim to none.  The question is whether he can keep it within ten points.

Rasmussen (4/14):

50% - Hillary Clinton
41% - Barack Obama

Quinnipiac (4/12-13):

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Susquehanna (4/14):

40% - Hillary Clinton
37% - Barack Obama

Survey USA (4/12-14):

54% - Hillary Clinton
40% - Barack Obama

So far this primary season, Survey USA has been the most accurate of all the polls.  Unless Hillary makes a huge strategic blunder, expect her to hold on.  If for some reason Obama did win, it would knock the former First Lady out of the race.

Blue Radar

As we post each morning, here are the political buzz stories headlining the newspapers and blogs before you head to work today:

• IRAQ The British Ministry of Defence is paying an Iraqi family two million pounds to a paralyzed Iraqi teenager after he was accidentally shot in Basra by a British soldier.
• ECONOMY Food prices are rising faster than any other time in 17 years.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Over the weekend, Congressman Geoff Davis (R-IN) used the term "boy" to describe Barack Obama.  I'm going to tell you something: That boy's finger does not need to beon the button," Davis said at a GOP fundraiser. "He could not make a decision in thatsimulation that related to a nuclear threat to this country."  Yesterday he apologized for that remark.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL North Carolina Democrats (PPP): Obama - 54%, Clinton - 34%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Indiana Democrats (SurveyUSA): Clinton - 55%, Clinton - 39%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Gallup): Obama - 50%, Clinton - 40%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Michigan voters (EPIC-MRA): Obama - 43%, McCain - 41%.  McCain - 46%, Clinton - 37%.

More posts throughout the day.

Blue Nightowl Clips

As we post in the middle of each night, here are some of the popular political clips making their rounds on the blogs this hour:

1. Congresswoman Kaptur: Columbia trade deal is about oil.
2. Cartoon: War on greed.
3. Pelosi: President's failed economic plan has stiffed the American people.
4. New TV ad in PA from Obama.

More clips tomorrow.

Looking beyond Pennsylvania

Obama supporters have to come to grips with the likelihood that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania rather easily.  We will try to capture as many delegates in that contest as possible.  However, judging from the fact that the media has gone to town with the remarks Obama made regarding bitterness in Pennsylvania, our candidate's up-tick in momentum there has leveled out, if not reversed somewhat.

The campaign would be smart to focus heavily on the May 6th contests in North Carolina and Indiana.  Nationally, Obama leads Clinton 50% to 40% in a Gallup Poll just released today.  As good as that is, what really matters is the polling in the upcoming states.  In North Carolina, Obama has a comfortable lead there.  And Clinton leads Obama by three in Indiana.  If Obama sweeps the May 6th contests, he can make the case to super delegates that they must stand in his favor.  If that happens, this race is over.

Obama has had one month to make the case to Pennsylvania voters.  It looks like, no matter what he does, Obama will come up short.  Let's move on.

Blue Radar

As we post each morning, here are the political buzz stories headlining the newspapers and blogs before you head to work today:

• IRAQ According to Lt. General William Odem, “The surge is prolonging instability, not creating the conditions for unity as the president claims.”
• ENVIRONMENT Rajendra Pachauri, the UN chief on the issue of climate change says that richer countries are not doing enough to take the lead on reducing greenhouse emission.
• HISTORY Yesterday on Meet the Press, former Cheney adviser Mary Matalin discussed the impact that Dick Cheney has had on the vice presidency.  "Dick Cheney has changed the nature of that office," she began.  "This brilliant man has made that office completely relevant." 
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL The Times-Tribune of Scranton, PA has endorsed Barack Obama for president.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL Democrats nationwide (Gallup): Obama - 50%, Clinton - 41%.
• 2008 ELECTION/PRESIDENTIAL North Carolina voters (Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 47%.  McCain - 51%, Clinton - 40%.

More posts throughout the day.

Blue Nightowl Clips

Entering a brand new week, here are some of the top political clips making their rounds on the blogs at this hour:

1. PA Senator Bob Casey on CNN discussing why Obama is a change candidate.
2. Red State America: Obama bashes small-town America.
3. Bob Shaffer ducks Abramoff questions.

More clips tomorrow.

Obama: "Shame on her"

Amen!