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2008.05.06

ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

Voters in North Carolina and Indiana have a stake in this race tonight.  Use this thread to weigh in as it unfolds, and comment with other Blue Staters.  Which candidate came out best?  And how long will this race last?

  • UPDATE (11:59 PM ET): lol Anderson Cooper just called John King the "Rainman of politics."  Ouch.  Well, that ends this thread, since it is about to expire.  I'll post more updated on another thread.
  • UPDATE (11:50 PM ET): Obama could win this.  Gary County is the only one remaining, and the margin is below 20,000 votes.
  • UPDATE (11:13 PM ET): In North Carolina, Obama nets about 11 delegates, and in Indiana Hillary nets roughly four.  That means Obama made up what he lost in Pennsylvania.  This race is over.
  • UPDATE (10:15 PM ET): It looks like Clinton will hold on.  She is now up by 41,000 votes, after being ahead only 38,000 about 20 minutes ago.  According to an NBC reporter, it is like "schizophrenia" inside the Hillary camp.
  • UPDATE (10:07 PM ET): An interesting stat to note as we wait for the results in Indiana.  In South Bend, Obama leads by around 11 points.  That is strange.  It's a heavily populated Catholic area, which should have gone to Clinton.  Even though Notre Dame is there, it still was expected to be in the Clinton category.  And there's more to be counted there.
  • UPDATE (9:59 PM ET): The voter ID law in Indiana might have hurt Clinton because, as Time Magazine writes on their web site, some senior citizens don't drive and therefore don't carry around photo ID.  12 nuns were turned away from a polling station in Indiana today.
  • UPDATE (9:44 PM ET): It looks like the Obama people are saying they will come up roughly 15,000 to 10,000 votes short of catching Hillary in Indiana.  Either way, a big night for Obama.
  • UPDATE (9:35 PM ET): In reaction to Obama's speech, one word: "WOW!"  And in Indiana, it's now 52% to 48%, Hillary slightly in the lead.
  • UPDATE (9:31 PM ET): Obama is really going populist in his message.  He is talking about trust in the public, and taking the humble route of admitting that he is an imperfect candidate.
  • UPDATE (9:12 PM ET): Obama is speaking!
  • UPDATE (9:11 PM ET): Wow!  Hillary spinners are going to have a difficult time with this.
  • UPDATE (8:58 PM ET): It's now down to six points in Indiana.  Though he will probably still lose, this is still pretty huge.  It ensures Obama will pick up more pledged delegates tonight, and erase almost all that Clinton gained in Pennsylvania.
  • UPDATE (8:39 PM ET): While CBS has called Indiana for Clinton, and although she may indeed come out the winner there, it is getting closer.  Stay tuned.
  • Update (8:30 PM ET): Obama is trouncing Hillary in North Carolina.  This is almost as bad for Clinton as the contest in Washington state.  If this keeps up, no matter if Hillary wins Indiana, many delegates are going to jump to Obama's side.

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Comments

If I could make some predictions, here they are:

North Carolina: Obama - 54%, Clinton - 46%
Indiana: Clinton - 54%, Obama - 46%

I say it will be one big stalemate by the time the night is over, and the two will battle it out until at least June 6th. Some super delegates will jump to Obama's side tomorrow, but not the wave that will come later.

I really think that Indiana is going to a lot closer than people are expecting. If Obama can win NC by 8-10% and then close Indiana out at just around 2-3% behind Clinton, it will be a great night for Obama.

Obviously, if he pulls the Indiana upset, this thing is over tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to watch.......

my predictions:
Indiana: Obama 47 Clinton 53
NC: Obama 58 Clinton 42

It looks like Obama is going to do very well tonight. Cory's predictions look pretty good.
I just hope that HRC will finally end her 'snit' and take her loss with dignity.

Oh man, this looks good for Obama!!! Who cares about Indiana. If this continues unfolding the way it looks like in Indiana, Obama is going to gain a LOT of delegates!

CBS News projects Clinton to win Indiana

If Obama stays within 10 in Indiana, he will increase his lead.
Buh-bye, Hillary!

Got that right, MLP. Now what Obama needs is one of his age-transcending speeches where he knocks it out of the park.

Yay!! Go Obama!!!!

-- Don't let the door hit you on the way out of the race Hillary!!!

Interesting that the Repubs who 'crossed over' in Indiana voted 52-46 in favor of Clinton. Almost exactly what the Dems are doing.
So much for 'Operation Chaos'!

GOOD POINT, MLP. It contradicts the theory that Republicans are all following Limbaugh's lead and voting for Hillary.

Wow...interesting strategy for Obama to give his speech first.

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