It was nice to watch Tim Russert actually spend some time focusing on real issues this morning, as opposed to asking Barack Obama an endless number of questions about Jeremiah Wright. During a portion of the full hour on Meet the Press, they discussed the proposed gas tax holiday. Obama explained that a short-term repeal of the gas tax would only cause demand to go up, meaning that the price would go up anyway and offset any money that consumers save. And as demand increases, that leads to shortages and long lines. Also, the gas tax takes money away from highway construction, which would lead to job loss.
Following Tuesday's races in North Carolina and Indiana, we will near the end of our primary calendar. Just six contests remain, which will take place in less than one month. When we wake up on the morning of June 4th, all the pledged delegates will have been decided, and the super delegates will have to make a decision.
If Hillary survives Indiana in two days, she has an opportunity to win a few more. Here is a look at the coming primary schedule:
May 13th: West Virginia (28 pledged delegates and 11 super delegates). Clinton is ahead there in the polls, even though Obama is the favorite among state party activists.
May 20th: Kentucky (51 pledged and 9 super delegates) and Oregon (52 pledged and 13 super). Clinton is poised for a landslide victory in Kentucky. Meanwhile, in Oregon, Obama has a huge lead among just about all social demographics, including white voters. In a new poll, he leads Clinton in Oregon 51% to 39%.
June 1st: Puerto Rico (55 pledged and 8 super). This race is actually huge. There are more pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico than any other contest after North Carolina. There has not been any polling there since early .
June 3rd: Montana (16 pledged and 9 super) and South Dakota (15 pledged and 8 super). It is likely that Obama will win there because it is a caucus, stemming from strong support in Missoula at the University of Montana. In South Dakota, Obama was in the last poll by a comfortable margin. Also, many of Obama's top advisers used to work for Tom Daschle. So the campaign has deep roots in that state.
Worst case scenario for Obama, Hillary trounces him in West Virginia, destroys Obama in Kentucky and narrowly loses in Oregon -- giving her the needed momentum to win Puerto Rico. If she wins Puerto Rico, maybe she could squeak out a win in Montana. South Dakota will be tougher for her. Then she could fight on to the convention.
Best case for Obama, he keeps it close in West Virginia, loses in Kentucky but wins handedly in Oregon. He then wins in Puerto Rico, setting him up to sweep the June 3rd contests, thus giving super delegates little reason to not jump aboard the Obama bandwagon.
Unlike April, when we had to wait and wait for the Pennsylvania contest, there will be elections every week in June (with the exception of the last Tuesday). I know this has been a long primary season. But now that we are nearing an end, at least try to enjoy it.
While the last two weeks have seemed like one big doom and gloom moment for Barack Obama, NBC today that Obama will appear on their Sunday show Meet the Press for the full hour just two days before the vote in Indiana and North Carolina.
If he ever had a chance to turn things around, this is the one!
You'd think someone would have figured out before:
Nobel Peace Prize winner and internationalsymbol of freedom Nelson Mandela is flagged on U.S. terrorist watchlists and needs special permission to visit the USA. Secretary of StateCondoleezza Rice calls the situation "embarrassing," and some membersof Congress vow to fix it.
The requirement applies to former South Africanleader Mandela and other members of South Africa's governing AfricanNational Congress (ANC), the once-banned anti-Apartheid organization.In the 1970s and '80s, the ANC was officially designated a terroristgroup by the country's ruling white minority. Other countries,including the United States, followed suit.
Because of this, Rice told a Senate committeerecently, her department has to issue waivers for ANC members to travelto the USA.
It like both Condoleezza Rice and Democratic members in Congress will change his status. The real question is why, following a situation like that, would Mandela even want to come here?
I hate to be the supplier of bad news for Obama fans, but his road ahead in Indiana is looking as steep as it's ever been. Rasmussen, one of the most reliable polling firms this campaign season, that Clinton has a 5-point lead in Indiana, 46% to Obama's 41%. In North Carolina, according to , Obama's double-digit lead has been cut in half. And in North Carolina poll, Clinton leads by two.
Back to Indiana, since that is where the action will be on election night. On the this morning, Michelle Obama appeared to plead with the media to forget the whole Jeremiah Wright soap opera:
"We hear time and time again voters are tired of this," Michelle Obama said in an interview the couple gave to NBC's "Today" show.
"They don't want to hear about this division, they want to know whatare we going to do to move beyond these issues," she said. "And whatmade me feel proud of Barack in this situation is that he is trying tomove us as a nation beyond these conversations that divide."
Whether voters are tired of it or not, the reality is that the media is fixated on it. Instead of questioning Clinton's personal problems (and there are a lot of them), Obama is facing all this questions and is constantly on the defensive. He has less than five days to try and change what the media is talking about, or else he will lose Indiana. Right now, all the undecided voters in both races, Indiana and North Carolina, are more likely to second-guess Obama. The Obama Campaign needs to give those undecided voters a reason to second-guess Clinton.
Like her or not, Clinton is a fighter. It will also take a fighter to beat her. Obama needs to get moving!
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