What a night in politics

Thankfully I only worked until 5 PM (Pacific time) so I didn't miss any of it.  This truly was one of the most exciting nights in politics I have ever experienced.  Going into Tuesday's contests, I thought Obama's victory in North Carolina would be about equal to that of Hillary Clinton's near-certain victory in Indiana -- at least six points on both fronts.  I was wrong.  Obama landed a comfortable victory in North Carolina, and brought us to the edge of our seats for the long, drawn out contest in Indiana.  Clinton pulled it out, barely.

By the end of the night, Obama went from being pushed against a fence to the certain nominee.  With Clinton about to get out of the race (fingers crossed on that one), Obama will be the target of GOP attacks from now until November.  If Hillary accomplished one good thing this race, it was that she helped get the Jeremiah Wright scandal out front and center now, as opposed to letting the Republicans do it just weeks before the election.

What a night.  And so a new race is about to begin -- again, assuming Clinton drops out.  Yes, assuming.

Comments

[Michel]

She won't drop out. I don't buy that for a second. On the other hand, I think a lot of attention will be put now on Hillary and how difficult her case will be to make to super-delegates.

I bet one thing she'll say is that half of those who voted for her would not vote for him, while it is only like 1/3rd for the other way around, so she's actually got more meaningful votes. However, I think that is a horrible case to make: those numbers demonstrate that she has been more divisive, not that she is the better candidate.

Based on just how strongly she has been pandering to McCain supporters, it makes me wonder if she would prefer another republican than to see anyone but her win the democratic nomination and win the general election.

[Michel]

(Sorry, didn't finish my thought.)

...Therefore, when she does drop out which will only be at the last possible moment, she might be so ill-willed that she'll be like "fine, he won, but you won't see me on any stage with him." She would stand on a stage with McCain if it didn't mean the end of her political career. Though she has surprised me more than once with just how daringly evil she can be.

[Politivine]

Last night was a great night for Obama! I think you may see the media really start to push her out of this race over the next few days.

The headlines today are interesting as several sources are already labeling him the presumptive nominee.

I wrote a piece this morning about what last night really meant because nothing really changed last night other than the fact that time has all but run out for Clinton to make up ground.

http://www.politivine.com/2008/05/07/how-was-may-6th-really-any-different-than-before/

Great night for Obama though, and I think things are really looking much clearer now for the Democratic party.

[RJ]

I believe you have seriously underestimated the resolve of Hillary, to become president.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html

Do you really think she will stop right now? She’s poised to win West Virginia and Kentucky soon, then make her case to have the Florida/Michigan’s votes count. This will not end soon.

[Chief Editor: Todd]

I think Clinton knows she is out of it. In a way, it might be smart for the Obama campaign to even ask her to stay in....because if he loses in West Virginia and Kentucky to someone that is already out of the race, that would make him look bad. So probably after Oregon, when Obama reaches the majority in pledged delegates, we will start to see her drop out. But yes, you are right, she is poised for a win in WV.

[Michel]

I disagree with the assessment that Clinton will leave. She'll be more stubborn than Huckabee. I do agree however that Obama will ask her to stay in, not because of the very true point you make, but because it would be consistent with what he has been doing so far, congratulating Clinton on her wins (including yesterday when it wasn't even called yet by anyone except for prematurely by CBS) and complimenting her spirit. It just makes you want to vote for him more...

If I had one point to make in the post-mortem of all this, it would be that she has been reshaping herself to whatever was politically convenient, making it unclear at the end of the day who she is, and he has been true how he's defined himself. If she wasn't a Clinton, she'd have been out a long time ago.

I think the tag "flip-flop" won't work on him, so the republicans will need to come up with something else. Or, you know, try the Harold Ford strategy again.

[Chief Editor: Todd]

Great points all around, Michel. They definitely will unleash the Harold Ford strategy on him. That is the only thing the Republicans can do -- but it will back up the long-held notion by many swing voters that the Republican Party is the bigot party.

[Michel]

The Harold Ford strategy worked against Ford, if I recall, in a red state with an undertone of racism (at least that's how the media portrayed it), and he only lost by a small margin. I don't see how it could work. Anyway, we'll see.